[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

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WTNT43 KNHC 211442
TCDAT3

TROPICAL DEPRESSION HARVEY DISCUSSION NUMBER  11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL082011
1000 AM CDT SUN AUG 21 2011

SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE INTENSITY AND COVERAGE OF DEEP
CONVECTION ACCOMPANYING HARVEY HAS CONTINUED TO DECREASE DURING THE
LAST SEVERAL HOURS. HOWEVER...THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION REMAINS
FAIRLY WELL DEFINED AND IS LOCATED NEAR THE WESTERN EDGE OF A SMALL
CLUSTER OF REMAINING CONVECTION. THE CENTER OF HARVEY SEEMS TO HAVE
AVOIDED THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF GUATEMALA AND SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO...
WHICH MAY HAVE ALLOWED IT TO SURVIVE LONGER.

THE ESTIMATED MOTION IS 280/12. HARVEY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
MOVING ON A GENERALLY WESTWARD COURSE UNTIL DISSIPATION IN ABOUT 24
TO 36 HOURS. ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE KEEPS HARVEY OVER
LAND...THE ECMWF/GFS SOLUTIONS ARE THE FARTHEST NORTH AND SUGGEST A
SLIM CHANCE THAT THE CENTER COULD BRIEFLY PASS OVER THE EXTREME
SOUTHERN BAY OF CAMPECHE. EVEN IF THIS WERE TO OCCUR...NO
SIGNIFICANT REGENERATION IS EXPECTED. THE OFFICIAL NHC TRACK IS
VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND LIES ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF
THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...TO THE NORTH OF THE MULTI-MODEL TVCN
CONSENSUS.

HEAVY RAINS IN ASSOCIATION WITH HARVEY...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
FLASH FLOODING...ARE STILL POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN
MEXICO FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  21/1500Z 17.7N  92.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
 12H  22/0000Z 18.1N  94.2W   20 KT  25 MPH...INLAND
 24H  22/1200Z 18.3N  95.6W   20 KT  25 MPH...INLAND
 36H  23/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN



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