[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

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WTNT43 KNHC 210848
TCDAT3

TROPICAL DEPRESSION HARVEY DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL082011
400 AM CDT SUN AUG 21 2011

LOW-LEVEL CLOUD LINES WERE OBSERVED IN A 0156 UTC TRMM OVERPASS AND
SUGGESTED THAT THE CENTER OF HARVEY HAS BEEN MOVING BRISKLY
WESTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN GUATEMALA AND INTO SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO
WITH AN ESTIMATED MOTION OF 280/13.  THE COVERAGE OF DEEP
CONVECTION HAS BEEN ON A DOWNWARD TREND...BUT THE CENTER OF THE
DEPRESSION IS ESTIMATED TO BE JUST TO THE WEST OF A REMAINING
CLUSTER ALONG THE MEXICO/GUATEMALA BORDER.  HARVEY IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE MOVING WESTWARD...WITH SOME DECELERATION...UNTIL IT
DISSIPATES BY 36 HOURS.  THE MODEL GUIDANCE AGREES ON THIS
SCENARIO..ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF IS THE FARTHEST NORTH OF THE MODELS
AND BRIEFLY MOVES HARVEY OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHERN BAY OF CAMPECHE
BETWEEN 12 AND 24 HOURS.  THE NHC TRACK FORECAST LIES JUST TO THE
NORTH OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS TVCA AND EXPERIMENTAL TV15...AND IS
VERY CLOSE TO THE COASTLINE OF THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.  IF THE CENTER
WAS TO MOVE OVER WATER AS SHOWN BY THE ECMWF...IT WOULD LIKELY NOT
BE OFFSHORE LONG ENOUGH FOR SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION TO OCCUR...
AND THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST CONTINUES TO SHOW GRADUAL WEAKENING
UNTIL DISSIPATION.

HEAVY RAINS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING IS STILL POSSIBLE
OVER PORTIONS OF GUATEMALA AND SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO FOR THE NEXT DAY
OR TWO.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  21/0900Z 17.7N  92.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  21/1800Z 18.1N  93.9W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 24H  22/0600Z 18.3N  96.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
 36H  22/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BERG

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