[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT43 KNHC 202036
TCDAT3

TROPICAL STORM HARVEY DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL082011
400 PM CDT SAT AUG 20 2011

THE CENTER OF HARVEY MADE LANDFALL NEAR DANGRIGA TOWN BELIZE NEAR
1800 UTC WITH MAXIMUM WINDS OF AROUND 50 KT.  JUST BEFORE
LANDFALL...AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORTED
63-KT WINDS AT 850 MB AND AN ATTEMPT TO FORM AN EYEWALL.  SINCE
LANDFALL...SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RADAR DATA FROM BELIZE SHOW LESS
CURVATURE IN THE CONVECTIVE BANDING NEAR THE CENTER...ALTHOUGH THE
CONVECTION REMAINS STRONG.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 45
KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 285/11.  THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NORTH OF HARVEY
SHOULD STEER THE CYCLONE GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO WESTWARD
UNTIL DISSIPATION.  THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS AN UPDATE OF THE
PREVIOUS ONE AND LIES NEAR THE CENTER OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

HARVEY SHOULD STEADILY WEAKEN AS IT CROSSES BELIZE AND GUATEMALA AND
MOVES INTO MEXICO...AND IT IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE COMPLETELY OVER
SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO BETWEEN 36-48 HOURS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  20/2100Z 17.2N  88.8W   45 KT  50 MPH...INLAND
 12H  21/0600Z 17.4N  90.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
 24H  21/1800Z 17.7N  92.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
 36H  22/0600Z 17.9N  94.9W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  22/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN


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