[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 191159
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT FRI AUG 19 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT AT 19/1200 UTC IS NEAR
15.6N 83.7W...OR ABOUT 48 NM TO THE NORTHWEST OF CABO GRACIAS
A DIOS ALONG THE BORDERS OF EASTERN HONDURAS/NORTHEASTERN
NICARAGUA. IT IS MOVING WESTWARD 10 KT. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WIND SPEEDS ARE 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 1006 MB. PUBLIC ADVISORIES ABOUT T.D. EIGHT ARE
ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT33 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER
MIATCPAT3. FORECAST/ADVISORIES ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER
WTNT22 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT3 FOR MORE DETAILS.
SCATTERED STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE
CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 16N TO 17N BETWEEN 82W AND 84W.
SOME RAINSHOWERS ALREADY HAVE GONE INLAND IN NORTHEASTERN
NICARAGUA DURING THE LAST FEW HOURS. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
THAT IS ORIENTED FROM NORTHEAST-TO-SOUTHWEST ORIGINATES IN THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN...IT PASSES ACROSS HISPANIOLA...AND IT REACHES
THE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 15N73W. AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER IS IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN NEAR 12N92W.
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS IN THE GULF
OF MEXICO NEAR 22N90W...JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE NORTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 19W/20W FROM 13N TO 22N.
A 1006 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 13N.
SCATTERED STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 9N TO
15N BETWEEN 18W AND 28W. SOME OF THE PRECIPITATION ALSO MAY BE
RELATED TO THE MONSOON TROUGH. UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
BE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM INTO A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AS IT MOVES WESTWARD/
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD 10 TO 15 MPH. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG
GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS TODAY
THROUGH SATURDAY.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 19N46W TO A 1007 MB LOW
PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 13N44W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 13N TO 16N BETWEEN 46W
AND 50W. NO SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS WAVE IS EXPECTED
TODAY. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME
INCREASINGLY CONDUCIVE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT INTO A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS... AS THE DISTURBANCE
APPROACHES THE LESSER ANTILLES ON SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM IS
MOVING WESTWARD 20 MPH.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

ANY WRITTEN INFORMATION ABOUT THE TROPICAL WAVES IS LISTED IN
THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION. ALL THE TROPICAL WAVES ARE SPECIAL
FEATURES AT THIS TIME.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE DEPICTION ON THE SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS A SPLIT MONSOON TROUGH
ALONG 18W AS A RESULT OF A VERY ACTIVE TROPICAL WAVE THAT IS
ALONG 19W/20W. ONE SECTION OF THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS
AFRICA. THE OTHER SECTION OF THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
THE 1006 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS ALONG THE 19W/20W
TROPICAL WAVE TO 12N37W AND 14N44W. NO ITCZ IS GIVEN BECAUSE
OF THE DISRUPTION OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AND THE LACK OF
NORTHEASTERLY TRADEWIND FLOW AND SOUTHEASTERLY TRADEWIND FLOW
IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. SCATTERED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS AND
ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE ELSEWHERE FROM 6N TO 10N
BETWEEN AFRICA AND 50W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

WEAK UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST COAST. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
TO THE EAST OF 90W. AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER
IS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 22N90W...JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THE EARLIER
NUMEROUS STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN LOUISIANA HAVE
DISSIPATED...LEAVING CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS THAT ARE TO THE
NORTH OF 26N TO THE WEST OF 90W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEASTERN
COAST OF HONDURAS. THE SOUTHERN END OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
PASSES ACROSS THE MONA PASSAGE INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR
15N73W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE NORTH OF 15N TO THE EAST
OF 73W WITH THE TROUGH. OTHER RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE
TO THE EAST OF 73W IN TRADEWIND FLOW. ISOLATED MODERATE
RAINSHOWERS ARE TO THE NORTH OF JAMAICA ALONG 17N BETWEEN 75W
AND WESTERN CUBA...CAUGHT UP IN BETWEEN THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION
AND THE SOUTHERN END OF THE TROUGH THAT REACHES THE FLORIDA
STRAITS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAS MOVED INTO THE WATERS OF THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC OCEAN AFTER EXITING THE U.S.A. EAST COAST. THE SOUTHERN
END OF THE TROUGH REACHES THE BAHAMAS AND THE FLORIDA STRAITS.
RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE BAHAMAS AND THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N67W
25N72W...TO THE CUBA COAST NEAR 21N76W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
PASSES THROUGH 32N56W TO A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT
IS NEAR 28N57W TO 22N64W...BEYOND THE MONA PASSAGE INTO THE
CARIBBEAN SEA. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS TO POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 25N TO 32N BETWEEN 53W AND 63W. OTHER
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN
50W AND 70W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 35N15W
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO 28N16W. UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND
FLOW IS TO THE NORTH OF 28N TO THE EAST OF 20W. BROAD UPPER
LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM THE MONSOON TROUGH
TO 20N BETWEEN 40W AND 60W. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW
IS TO THE NORTH OF 20N TO THE EAST OF 75W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT



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