[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 171153
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT WED AUG 17 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 70W/71W FROM THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC SOUTHWARD TO 12N. RAINSHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE AREA FROM 14N TO HISPANIOLA BETWEEN
69W AND 75W IN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. CONDITIONS HAVE BECOME
A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS. NO SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE CENTER EXISTS. SURFACE BAROMETRIC PRESSURES ARE
NOT FALLING IN THIS REGION. THIS WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD
15 TO 20 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SLOW
DEVELOPMENT INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 18N31W 12N32W.
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 10N TO 16N BETWEEN 30W AND 34W.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 23N16W AT THE AFRICA
COAST...ACROSS THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS TO 13N30W AND 9N43W.
NO NORTHEASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE PRESENT AND THUS NO ITCZ HAS
BEEN ANALYZED ON THE MAP. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS TO
LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 7N TO 16N BETWEEN THE
AFRICA COAST AND 22W. NUMEROUS STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 6N TO 9N BETWEEN 35W AND 37W. RAINSHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 11N BETWEEN AFRICA AND
SOUTH AMERICA.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N78W IN THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN...ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA NEAR 27N82W...INTO THE SOUTH
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN GULF WATERS. A STATIONARY FRONT PASSES
THROUGH 32N78W...INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA...INTO THE NORTHEASTERN
CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 28N85W...AND THEN IT CONTINUES
NORTHWESTWARD BEYOND SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA. RAINSHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO ALONG THE LOUISIANA COAST AND IN
THE COASTAL WATERS BETWEEN 90W AND 91W...AND TO THE SOUTH OF 28N
TO THE EAST OF 90W. RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES
THROUGH 32N66W TO GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND...AND IN THE BAHAMAS FROM
23N TO 25N. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH THE FLORIDA
STRAITS...INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...TO
A 1015 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 27N92W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA THAT IS BETWEEN
70W AND 80W IN THE WATERS AND COASTAL PLAINS OF ALL THE NEARBY
COUNTRIES. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 70W/71W FROM 12N TO THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE AREA
FROM 14N TO HISPANIOLA BETWEEN 69W AND 75W IN THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE. PLEASE REFERENCE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION AT THE
BEGINNING OF THIS BULLETIN FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THIS TROPICAL
WAVE. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS IN THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...MOVING TOWARD THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA OF MEXICO. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 19N85W...REACHING
CUBA NEAR 22N81W...TO JUST TO THE SOUTH OF ANDROS ISLAND IN THE
BAHAMAS. RAINSHOWERS COVER THE WATERS FROM 20N TO THE ISLE OF
YOUTH OF CUBA BETWEEN 83W AND 85W. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IS
BETWEEN 76W AND CENTRAL AMERICA...HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA. THE
COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IS SURROUNDED BY MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N78W IN THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN...ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA NEAR 27N82W...INTO THE SOUTH
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN GULF WATERS. A STATIONARY FRONT PASSES
THROUGH 32N78W...INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA...INTO THE NORTHEASTERN
CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 28N85W...AND THEN IT CONTINUES
NORTHWESTWARD BEYOND SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA.  RAINSHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N66W TO GRAND BAHAMA
ISLAND...AND IN THE BAHAMAS FROM 23N TO 25N. UPPER LEVEL
CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF
15N BETWEEN 45W AND 65W. NUMEROUS STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 56W AND 58W. BROAD
SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS TO THE NORTH OF 20N TO THE
EAST OF 74W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT





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