[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT42 KNHC 162039
TCDAT2

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE GERT DISCUSSION NUMBER  12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL072011
500 PM AST TUE AUG 16 2011

IT HAS BEEN MORE THAN 12 HR SINCE GERT LAST PRODUCED SIGNIFICANT
ORGANIZED CONVECTION...A TREND THAT IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE AS THE
CENTER MOVES OVER INCREASING COLDER WATERS.  IN ADDITION...AN ASCAT
OVERPASS AT 1420 UTC WAS AMBIGUOUS...AT BEST...AS TO WHETHER A
CLOSED CIRCULATION STILL EXISTED.  BASED ON THIS INFORMATION...GERT
IS DOWNGRADED TO A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE.  THE CYCLONE IS LIKELY TO
PERSIST FOR ANOTHER 12 HR OR SO BEFORE WEAKENING TO A TROUGH IN
DEEP-LAYER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW.

IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT QUALITY CONTROL ON A REPORT OF 44-KT WINDS
FROM SHIP WDC6923 SUGGESTS THE REPORTED WINDS ARE A LITTLE TOO
HIGH.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS THEREFORE IN LINE WITH THE ASCAT
DATA.

THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ON GERT FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER.  ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH
SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS
HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  16/2100Z 39.5N  54.7W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 12H  17/0600Z 41.9N  50.8W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 24H  17/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN


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