[Tropical] Public Tropical Cyclone Advisory

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WTNT32 KNHC 142041
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BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM GERT ADVISORY NUMBER   4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL072011
500 PM AST SUN AUG 14 2011

...GERT SLOWLY STRENGTHENING AS IT MOVES TOWARD BERMUDA...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.9N 63.2W
ABOUT 255 MI...410 KM SSE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GERT WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 63.2 WEST. GERT IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/H. A GRADUAL
TURN TOWARD THE NORTH IS EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT OR MONDAY MORNING.
ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF GERT IS EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR
OR JUST EAST OF BERMUDA BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 45 MPH...75
KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM..
MAINLY EAST OF THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES...
BASED ON RECENT REPORTS FROM A RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON BERMUDA LATE
TONIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY.

RAINFALL...GERT IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ON BERMUDA.

SURF...LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY GERT WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT BERMUDA
LATER TONIGHT AND ON MONDAY.  THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS.  PLEASE CONSULT
PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 PM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART


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