[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 140552
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SUN AUG 14 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

POST-TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN IS CENTERED NEAR 40.5N 51.8W AT
14/0300 UTC MOVING ENE AT 23 KT. ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
1005 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 35 KT WITH GUST TO 45
KT. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE CENTER. PLEASE SEE
THE LAST NHC FORECAST/ ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN IS CENTERED NEAR 27.9N 61.6W AT
14/0300 UTC MOVING WNW AT 9 KT. ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
1011 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 30 KT WITH GUST TO 40
KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 26N-28N BETWEEN
60W-62W. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC..AND THE NHC PUBLIC
ADVISORY MIATCPAT1/WTNT32 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

A 1013 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 22N57W MOVING WNW AT 15-20 KT. A
SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 24N58W TO THE LOW CENTER TO
20N55W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM
21N-24N BETWEEN 55W-58W. WHILE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE
CURRENTLY NOT FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS COULD BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT DURING
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 16N39W TO 9N40W MOVING W AT 10-15 KT.
THE WAVE LIES IN AN AREA OF ENHANCED MOISTURE EVIDENT IN TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. WHILE THE WAVE IS CURRENTLY INACTIVE
AND HAS NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION...MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS
ENHANCED CONVECTION AND SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THE WAVE IN A FEW
DAYS.

TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ANALYZED FROM 22N87W
TO 15N91W MOVING W AT 10-12 KT. MOST OF THE CONVECTION...
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG...IS INLAND OVER SOUTHERN GUATEMALA
AND EL SALVADOR.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST OF MAURITANIA
NEAR 17N16W TO 13N20W TO 10N40W. THE ITCZ IS ANALYZED FROM
10N40W TO THE COAST OF VENEZUELA NEAR 8N60W. WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH FROM 4N-6N
BETWEEN 17W-25W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS N OF THE ITCZ FROM
12N-14N BETWEEN 44W-47W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A WEAK 1014 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO NEAR 28N89W. 5 KT ANTICYCLONIC SURFACE WINDS ARE NOTED
AROUND THE HIGH...WHILE 10-15 KT SE TO S WINDS ARE OVER THE W
GULF W OF 93W. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE OVER KEY WEST FLORIDA AND THE SE GULF. SIMILAR ACTIVITY
REMAINS INLAND OVER FLORIDA...S MISSISSIPPI...S LOUISIANA...AND
S MEXICO S OF 18N. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE WITH HIGH CLOUDS ARE OVER TEXAS...THE N GULF N OF
28N...FLORIDA...THE SE GULF...THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND THE
BAY OF CAMPECHE S OF 20N. EXPECT TROPICAL MOISTURE AND
CONVECTION TO ADVECT OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS DUE TO THE TROPICAL WAVE. ALSO EXPECT THE TAIL END OF A
COLD FRONT TO BE OVER THE NORTH GULF STATES FROM THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE TO E TEXAS IN 24 HOURS WITH CONVECTION.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. SEE ABOVE. THE
MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM N COLOMBIA TO COSTA RICA GENERATING
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION OVER N COLOMBIA
FROM 7N-11N BETWEEN 72W-78W. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS ALONG THE
COASTS OF NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS FROM 11N-17N BETWEEN 81W-85W.
ELSEWHERE...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER N
HISPANIOLA FROM 19N-22N BETWEEN 68W-72W. 15-20 KT TRADEWINDS ARE
NOTED OVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH STRONGEST WINDS OVER THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN N OF COLOMBIA. EXPECT THE TROPICAL WAVE TO ENHANCE
CONVECTION OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND THE BAY OF CAMPECHE
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ALSO EXPECT CONTINUED CONVECTION OVER
HISPANIOLA DUE TO A SURFACE TROUGH FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS...TOGETHER WITH MONSOON TROUGH CONVECTION OVER THE SW
CARIBBEAN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BESIDES THE THREE SYSTEMS MENTIONED IN THE SPECIAL FEATURE
SECTION...A SURFACE TROUGH IS N OF PUERTO RICO FROM 24N63W TO
18N65W PRODUCING WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION W OF THE
TROUGH AXIS MOSTLY N OF HISPANIOLA. A 1018 MB HIGH IS CENTERED N
OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 27N68W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER. A
1023 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 33N43W.
ANOTHER 1020 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 34N22W. AFRICAN
DUST AND DRY AIR ARE NOTED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY N
OF 18N E OF 35W TO THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA SUPPRESSING TROPICAL
ACTIVITY. EXPECT THE SPECIAL FEATURES...SURFACE TROUGH...AND THE
TROPICAL WAVE TO BE THE DOMINATE WEATHER PRODUCERS OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA





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