[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 121043
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT FRI AUG 12 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A 1010 MB LOW IS CENTERED ABOUT 1000 NM W OF THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS NEAR 13N40W WITH A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDING NW FROM THE
LOW TO 20N44W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING W AT 13 KT. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 16N-19N BETWEEN
41W-46W. SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THE SYSTEM MAY BE
ENCOUNTERING A DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR MASS...HOWEVER
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS STILL APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR GRADUAL
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM
CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

A 1010 MB LOW IS CENTERED ABOUT 275 NM SSW OF THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS NEAR 11N27W WITH A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDING N ACROSS THE
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS TO 17N25W. HE SYSTEM IS MOVING W AT 13-17 KT.
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NEAR THE LOW CENTER FROM
8N-14N BETWEEN 27W-33W. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FROM 20N78W TO
12N80W MOVING W 10 KT. THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD AREA
OF DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER E CUBA FROM
18N-20N BETWEEN 75W-77W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS OFF THE W COAST OF AFRICA NEAR 21N16W
AND CONTINUES TO THE LOW AT 11N27W THEN CONTINUES TO 14N34W. THE
ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 14N34W TO THE LOW AT 13N40W TO SOUTH AMERICA
NEAR 4N51W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER FLORIDA FROM JACKSONVILLE TO S OF
MIAMI. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. A 1015
MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE E GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 24N85W. 5-10
KT ANTICYCLONIC SURFACE WINDS ARE NOTED WITH MOSTLY FAIR
WEATHER. CLUSTERS OF WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE
INLAND OVER S MEXICO. IN THE UPPER LEVELS AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH
IS CENTERED OVER THE W GULF NEAR 26N92W WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE.
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS NOTED OVER S FLORIDA...W CUBA...AND THE
SE GULF. EXPECT...LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. SEE ABOVE.
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM N COLOMBIA TO PANAMA AND COSTA
RICA GENERATING SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
S OF 12N. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER
NICARAGUA...HONDURAS...EL SALVADOR...AND GUATEMALA. 15-20 KT
TRADEWINDS ARE NOTED OVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH STRONGEST WINDS
OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN N OF COLOMBIA. EXPECT THE TROPICAL
WAVE TO ENHANCE CONVECTION OVER THE W CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL
AMERICA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1019 MB HIGH IS CENTERED N OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 26N65W
PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER. A 1014 MB LOW IS FURTHER E NEAR 25N54W.
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS S FROM THE LOW TO 20N58W. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 45 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS. A 1025
MB HIGH IS CENTERED S OF THE AZORES NEAR 36N30W. A SURFACE RIDGE
AXIS EXTENDS SW FROM THE HIGH TO 23N48W. EXPECT THE TWO SPECIAL
FEATURE LOWS TO BE THE DOMINATE WEATHER PRODUCERS OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA







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