[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 111808
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT THU AUG 11 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 21W/22W FROM A 1011 MB
LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 10N ALONG THE WAVE TO 18N.
STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 11N TO 12N BETWEEN
21W AND 23W...AND FROM 11N TO 12N BETWEEN 26W AND 27W.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME GRADUALLY MORE
CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD 15 TO 20 MPH.

A 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 13N34W. THIS LOW CENTER
IS EMBEDDED IN THE MONSOON TROUGH AND AT THE SOUTHERN END OF
A TROPICAL WAVE THAT IS ALONG 13N34W 16N37W 19N41W. STRONG
RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 15N TO 16N BETWEEN 36W
AND 38W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS TO ISOLATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 7N TO 13N BETWEEN 32W AND 38W.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE FAVORABLE FOR GRADUAL
DEVELOPMENT INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD 15 MPH.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 20N72W 16N73W 12N73W
19N57W. THIS WAVE IS A WAVE THAT DEVELOPED A FEW DAYS AGO AFTER
AN EARLIER WAVE THAT WAS MOVING THROUGH THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
TOWARD THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA WEAKENED AND DISSIPATED.
NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ACCOMPANIES THIS
WAVE.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE PRIME MERIDIAN ALONG 21N
TO 23N10W 21N17W 15N18W 10N22W 14N30W 13N39W 5N45W. THE ITCZ
CONTINUES FROM 5N45W INTO NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL TO THE EQUATOR
ALONG 52W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 7N TO 8N BETWEEN 40W
AND 45W...AND FROM 6N TO 10N TO THE WEST OF 50W...AND IN
NORTHEASTERN FRENCH GUIANA ALONG THE BORDER WITH BRAZIL.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA.
SCATTERED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
ARE ABOUT 70 NM TO THE SOUTH OF THE COAST OF THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE BETWEEN THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AND THE ALABAMA/
MISSISSIPPI BORDER. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN FLORIDA AND
COASTAL WATERS ON EITHER SIDE OF THE STATE TO THE SOUTH OF
27N...WITH THE 30N80W 28N82W SURFACE TROUGH THAT REACHES
FLORIDA FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
29N77W TO 25N79W SURFACE TROUGH.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM AN ATLANTIC OCEAN 30N68W
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO A 22N76W CYCLONIC CENTER THAT
IS BETWEEN THE BAHAMAS AND CUBA...TO 20N80W...TO A CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS ON TOP OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE NORTH OF 15N TO THE WEST OF 80W.
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE EAST OF NICARAGUA FROM 12N TO
15N BETWEEN 80W AND THE COAST. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 20N72W
16N73W 12N73W 19N57W. THIS WAVE IS A WAVE THAT DEVELOPED A FEW
DAYS AGO AFTER AN EARLIER WAVE THAT WAS MOVING THROUGH THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN TOWARD THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA WEAKENED AND
DISSIPATED. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION
ACCOMPANIES THIS WAVE. THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 10N73W
IN NORTHERN COLOMBIA...TO 11N80W AND BEYOND NORTHERN COSTA RICA.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
TO THE SOUTH OF 11N BETWEEN 77W AND THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF
NICARAGUA AND THE COAST OF COSTA RICA. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
PASSES THROUGH THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 16N53W...INTO THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA TO A 16N67W CYCLONIC CENTER. BROAD UPPER LEVEL
CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA TO THE EAST OF 70W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT PARALLELS THE U.S.A. EAST COAST AND
THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N75W TO 28N82W...SUPPORTS A STATIONARY
FRONT THAT ENDS NEAR 31N75W. ONE SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG
29N77W...ACROSS THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS...TO 25N79W. A SECOND
SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 30N80W INTO FLORIDA NEAR 28N82W.
ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
ARE WITHIN 100 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH
32N73W TO 28N76W TO 24N80W IN THE FLORIDA STRAITS. RAINSHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE TO THE NORTH OF 30N BETWEEN 50W AND 67W.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 33N48W TO 27N53W. THIS
SUPPORTS A SURFACE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N47W TO 26N50W AND
20N55W. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 17N TO 27N BETWEEN 48W AND 70W.
SCATTERED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
ARE FROM 31N TO 33N BETWEEN 46W AND 48...AND FROM 24N TO 26N
BETWEEN 51W AND 55W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE FROM 17N
TO 30N BETWEEN 50W AND 60W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH
32N44W TO 25N47W...TO AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER
THAT IS NEAR 16N53W...INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO A 16N67W
CYCLONIC CENTER. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N35W TO 26N41W
22N48W. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW MOVES AROUND A 1018 MB
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 25N62W. CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 18N BETWEEN THE 32N47W 20N55W
SURFACE TROUGH AND 71W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT








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