[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 102356
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT WED AUG 10 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
THE TROPICAL WAVE IN THE E TROPICAL ATLC IS NO LONGER
DISCERNIBLE. HOWEVER...THE 1010 MB LOW IS WELL DEFINED AND HAS
BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL GRADUAL
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND IT HAS
A MEDIUM CHANE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD NEAR 9-13 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE/
STRONG CONVECTION IS SE OF THE LOW WITHIN 90 NM OF LINE FROM
12N27W TO 8N31W WITH CLUSTERS OF SIMILAR CONVECTION NW OF THE
LOW WITHIN 90 NM OF LINE FROM 17N31W TO 11N35W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE E CARIBBEAN IS ANALYZED FROM 19N60W
THROUGH THE N LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR SAINT KITTS AND NEVIS TO
14N65W MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. WAVE REMAINS ALONG THE TRAILING EDGE
OF DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER IMAGERY. AN AREA OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE COUPLED WITH THE
WAVE ARE GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 13N-18N BETWEEN 62W-71W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC OFF W AFRICA
JUST N OF DAKAR SENEGAL THROUGH THE 1010 MB LOW IN THE SPECIAL
FEATURES CONTINUING ALONG 9N40W TO 9N52W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES
FROM 9N52W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 9N61W. A SECOND
1010 MB LOW IS JUST OFF THE COAST OF W AFRICA NEAR 10N16W WITH
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION FROM 8N-14N E
OF 21W TO INLAND OVER W AFRICA.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES MOST OF THE GULF ANCHORED NEAR
28N89W COVERING ALL BUT THE FAR NW GULF WHERE A WEAK INVERTED
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM BROWNSVILLE TEXAS TO LAKE CHARLES LOUISIANA.
AN UPPER TROUGH IS OVER SE CONUS INTO THE W ATLC N OF 30N
SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE FAR NE GULF EXTENDING
ACROSS JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA INTO THE GULF WATERS NEAR CEDAR KEY
TO 27N85W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE E
GULF FROM 24N-29N E OF 87W TO OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. A WEAK
SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS S FLORIDA TO THE W
GULF NEAR 26N92W LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF UNDER CLEAR
SKIES THIS EVENING. THE WEAK SURFACE RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT
E AS THE TROUGHING ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SHARPENS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO DIPS S OVER THE NW
CARIBBEAN WHILE A SECOND UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE CENTRAL
ATLC EXTENDS S OVER THE E AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN INDUCING A WEAK
INVERTED UPPER TROUGH THAT EXTENDS BETWEEN FROM THE GULF OF
HONDURAS TO CENTRAL CUBA NEAR CAMAGUEY. THE MONSOON TROUGH
EXTENDS ALONG 9N FROM COLOMBIA ACROSS PANAMA INTO THE E PACIFIC
REGION GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS S OF 11N TO INLAND OVER COLOMBIA TO COSTA RICA.
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS HAVE AGAIN DEVELOPED OVER JAMAICA AND
MOST OF CUBA MOVING INTO THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. FRESH TO
MODERATE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE DEVELOPING ISOLATED SHOWERS
FROM 14N-19N BETWEEN 76W-83W LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE
CARIBBEAN UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING. W ATLC SURFACE
RIDGE WILL SHIFT E-SE AND WEAKEN THROUGH THU ALLOWING FOR THE
TRADE WINDS IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TO WEAKEN. TROPICAL WAVE
OVER THE E CARIBBEAN WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ON THU
AND FRI. FRESH TRADE WINDS WILL RETURN TO CENTRAL CARIBBEAN LATE
FRI AND SAT BEHIND TROPICAL WAVE.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE SE CONUS AND ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD SUPPORTING A PAIR OF SURFACE TROUGHS. THE WESTERN ONE
IS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO WHILE THE EASTERN MOST TROUGH EXTENDS
FROM 32N75W ALONG 29N77W TO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR WEST PALM
BEACH. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN
120/150 NM OF LINE FROM 31N74W TO OVER FLORIDA NEAR FORT
LAUDERDALE. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE W
ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1017 MB HIGH NEAR 24N63W AND EXTENDS W ACROSS
S FLORIDA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE W
ATLC W OF 60W UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING. AN UPPER
TROUGH IS OVER THE N/CENTRAL ATLC N OF 30N SUPPORTING A SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDING THROUGH 32N48W TO 26N56W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE AREA FROM 20N-30N
BETWEEN 45W-56W. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE E ATLC WITH THE AXIS
EXTENDING THROUGH 32N33W TO 21N43W LEAVING THE E ATLC UNDER
MOSTLY FAIR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING. SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE W
ATLC WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT THEN SHIFT SLIGHTLY ESE AND
WEAKEN THROUGH THU. WEAK SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE FAR W ATLC WILL
REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH EARLY FRI BEFORE LIFTING OUT OF
THE DISCUSSION AREA TO NE ON SAT. WEAK SURFACE RIDGE WILL THEN
REBUILD INTO AREA FRI AND SAT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW





This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net