[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 101749
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT TUE AUG 09 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 22N35W 16N33W 12N31W.
A 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS AT THE SOUTHERN END OF THE
TROPICAL WAVE...IN THE MONSOON TROUGH. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 12N TO 15N BETWEEN
30W AND 32W. SCATTERED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 7N TO 15N BETWEEN 25W AND 30W.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR GRADUAL
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD 10 TO 15 MPH.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 19N57W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...THROUGH
THE MARTINIQUE PASSAGE...TO 12N63W. STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WERE OCCURRING FROM 14N TO 16N BETWEEN 63W AND 64W
FOUR TO FIVE HOURS AGO. THE CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES IN THAT AREA
OF PRECIPITATION HAVE WARMED ALREADY...LEAVING POSSIBLE REMNANT
RAINSHOWERS. RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ACTIVE FROM 13N
TO 18N BETWEEN 63W AND 75W. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL FOR
GUADELOUPE FOR THE TIME PERIOD ENDING AT 10/1200 UTC WAS
1.15 INCHES.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE PRIME MERIDIAN ALONG 18N
TO 23N8W 14N20W...TO A 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR
12N31W TO 8N40W 8N49W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS TO
ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 6N TO 11N TO THE EAST OF
20W...AND FROM 5N TO 10N BETWEEN 30W AND 41W. RAINSHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 10N BETWEEN 41W AND SOUTH
AMERICA.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

BROAD SURFACE LOW PRESSURE COVERS THE AREA FROM SOUTHERN GEORGIA
TO SOUTHERN FLORIDA. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM SOUTHEASTERN
GEORGIA...THROUGH NORTHERN FLORIDA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR
26N88W. NUMEROUS STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN
60 TO 120 NM OFF THE FLORIDA COAST FROM 27N TO 30N.
BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE NORTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE AREA TO THE NORTH OF 23N TO THE WEST OF 90W. UPPER
LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE
EAST OF 90W. THE WIND FLOW IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
AREA HEADS TOWARD CYCLONIC FLOW...IN RELATION TO THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH THAT PASSES FROM THE BAHAMAS NEAR 23N75W TO 21N79W...TO
18N86W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...BEYOND NORTHERN GUATEMALA AND
ACROSS THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC...INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC
OCEAN.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE BAHAMAS NEAR 23N75W...
ACROSS CUBA NEAR 21N79W...INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 18N86W...BEYOND NORTHERN GUATEMALA. NO
SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ACCOMPANIES THIS
TROUGH AT THE MOMENT. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW
ORIGINATES IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...MOVING AROUND A CENTRAL
ATLANTIC OCEAN RIDGE...ALONG AND TO THE NORTH OF 18N52W 18N61W
21N64W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 19N57W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THROUGH THE MARTINIQUE PASSAGE...TO 12N63W. STRONG RAINSHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE OCCURRING FROM 14N TO 16N BETWEEN 63W AND
64W FOUR TO FIVE HOURS AGO. THE CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES IN THAT
AREA OF PRECIPITATION HAVE WARMED ALREADY...LEAVING POSSIBLE
REMNANT RAINSHOWERS. RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ACTIVE
FROM 13N TO 18N BETWEEN 63W AND 75W. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL
FOR GUADELOUPE FOR THE TIME PERIOD ENDING AT 10/1200 UTC WAS
1.15 INCHES. THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 10N74W IN
NORTHERN COLOMBIA...THROUGH 9N80W IN PANAMA...BEYOND SOUTHERN
COSTA RICA. SCATTERED STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE TO THE SOUTH OF 11N BETWEEN COLOMBIA ALONG 75W AND THE
SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF NICARAGUA/NORTHEASTERN COAST OF COSTA RICA.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N77W...ACROSS THE
NORTHERN BAHAMAS TO 22N78W NEAR CUBA. BROAD SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
COVERS THE AREA FROM SOUTHERN GEORGIA TO SOUTHERN FLORIDA.
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE TO THE NORTH OF 25N BETWEEN 70W AND 80W.
THE REMNANT LOW PRESSURE OF EMILY IS WRAPPED UP IN AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH THAT SUPPORTS A CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN SURFACE
TROUGH. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 37N50W TO 34N52W
TO 30N54W. THE SURFACE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N48W TO 29N50W
AND 26N56W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND ISOLATED
MODERATE RAINSHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN
120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N46W
28N50W 26N55W...AND FROM 20N TO 27N BETWEEN 45W AND 52W.
ONE SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N30W TO 26N38W 22N51W...
TO A 1018 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 25N65W...TO
26N71W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT




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