[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 091804
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT TUE AUG 09 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 26W/27W FROM A 1012 MB
LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 11N IN THE MONSOON TROUGH...TO
18N. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM
7N TO 14N BETWEEN 24W AND 31W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 20N53W 15N56W 11N56W.
PRECIPITATION THAT HAS BEEN WITHIN 150 NM TO THE WEST OF THE
WAVE AND MOVING TOWARD BARBADOS DURING THE LAST FOUR TO FIVE
HOURS HAS WEAKENED AND/OR DISSIPATED. A 1012 MB LOW PRESSURE
CENTER THAT WAS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE 24 HOURS AGO
NOW IS ALONE AND TRAILING THE WAVE NEAR 14N52W. RAINSHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN A 30 TO 60 NM RADIUS OF THE LOW CENTER.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE PRIME MERIDIAN ALONG 21N
TO 22N7W 15N20W 9N39W TO 14N52W WITH THE 1012 MB LOW PRESSURE
CENTER. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 5N TO 8N BETWEEN
32W AND 41W. SCATTERED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS OF 12N20W...AND FROM 7N
TO 9N BETWEEN 44W AND 48W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE
FROM 4N TO 10N TO THE EAST OF 20W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS IN THE NORTH
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO ABOUT 90 NM TO THE SOUTH OF THE
SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF LOUISIANA. CYCLONIC FLOW IS ABOUT 210 NM
TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...
AND MOST IF NOT ALL OF FLORIDA. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES
THROUGH 32N72W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO 29N76W. SCATTERED
MODERATE RAINSHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE
COASTAL AREAS AND SOME INTERIOR SECTIONS OF FLORIDA FROM 27N TO
30N BETWEEN 80W AND 86W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE TO
THE NORTH OF 26N TO THE EAST OF 92W. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES
THROUGH A 1016 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 22N77W IN
CUBA TO 27N93W IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...BEYOND
THE UPPER TEXAS GULF COAST.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR
25N73W...ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND THE CUBA COAST NEAR 22N78W...
INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 19N81W...BEYOND EL SALVADOR AND
SOUTHERN GUATEMALA. STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ALONG THE COAST OF EASTERN HONDURAS BETWEEN 84W AND 85W.
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTH OF 15N TO THE
WEST OF JAMAICA. A SURFACE SHEAR AXIS IS ALONG 17N58W IN THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN...CROSSING DOMINICA...TO 15N66W IN THE CARIBBEAN
SEA. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 13N TO 17N BETWEEN 58W AND 72W. THE
24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL FOR GUADELOUPE FOR THE TIME PERIOD
ENDING AT 09/1200 UTC WAS 0.31 OF AN INCH. ANOTHER AREA OF
CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION THAT WAS ABOUT 110 NM TO THE EAST OF
BARBADOS ABOUT 4 TO 5 HOURS AGO IS NOT AS ACTIVE NOW. THE CLOUD
TOP TEMPERATURES IN THAT AREA HAVE WARMED AND THE PRECIPITATION
HAS WEAKENED AND/OR DISSIPATED. REMNANT CLOUDS ARE FROM 11N TO
14N BETWEEN 59W AND 61W. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 10N PASSES
THROUGH NORTHERN COLOMBIA NEAR 74W BEYOND COSTA RICA. NUMEROUS
STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT WERE IN NORTHWESTERN
COLOMBIA AND EASTERN PANAMA FOUR TO FIVE HOURS AGO HAVE WEAKENED
AND/OR DISSIPATED. ONE NEW CELL OF CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION HAS
DEVELOPED OFF THE PANAMA COAST JUST TO THE SOUTH OF 10N JUST TO
THE WEST OF 80W. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME PRECIPITATION MAY
REMAIN IN PANAMA TO THE EAST OF 80W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N72W TO 29N76W.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR
25N73W...ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND THE CUBA COAST NEAR
22N78W...INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 19N81W. RAINSHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE TO THE NORTH OF 23N BETWEEN 70W AND 80W INCLUDING
ACROSS THE BAHAMAS. A CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
PASSES 32N42W TO 26N46W AND 23N51W. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A
STATIONARY FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N41W TO 25N52W. A SURFACE
TROUGH IS ALONG 25N49W 21N55W. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH
32N38W TO 27N43W TO 24N49W. ONE SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH
32N27W TO 26N33W AND 20N47W. A SECOND RIDGE GOES FROM A 1017 MB
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 24N63W BEYOND THE FLORIDA
STRAITS. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE REMNANT LOW OF EMILY
THAT IS NEAR 34N53W...THROUGH 32N52W TO 29N54W. POSSIBLE
RAINSHOWERS AND MAYBE THUNDERSTORMS ARE TO THE NORTH OF 30N
BETWEEN 50W AND 70W. HIGH CLOUDS ARE MOVING SOUTHWARD...COVERING
THE OCEAN FROM 24N TO 30N BETWEEN 50W AND 60W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT




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