[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 082335
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT MON AUG 08 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS PASSING OVER THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS ALONG 19N23W 12N25W MOVING W AT 10 KT. SATELLITE IMAGERY
REVEALS A LOW TO MID LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IN THE SOUTHERN
EXTENSION OF THE WAVE AXIS. THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN A SURGE OF
DEEP MOISTURE ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCT. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 49W S OF 18N MOVING W
AT 10 KT. THE WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED IN A REGION OF ELEVATED
VALUES OF MOISTURE ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCT WITH
A 1012 MB LOW LOW OBSERVED AT 14N49W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE W OF
THE WAVE AXIS FROM 8N-16N BETWEEN 50W-57W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FROM 20N70W TO
11N72W MOVING WNW AT 20 KT. SLIGHT CURVATURE IS OBSERVED IN THE
LOW/MID LEVEL CLOUDS. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER
HISPANIOLA...AND OVER N COLOMBIA.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 17N16W
TO 14N20W TO 9N37W TO 12N46W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 12N46W TO
15N60W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
ALONG THE  COAST OF WEST AFRICA FROM 11N-15N BETWEEN 14W-18W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-12N BETWEEN
25W-29W...AND FROM 6N-9N BETWEEN 37W-41W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA FROM DAYTONA BEACH TO
SARASOTA. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTH AND
CENTRAL FLORIDA N OF 26N. CLUSTERS OF AIRMASS THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ALSO OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. WEAK SURFACE RIDGING IS OVER
THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH AXIS ALONG 24N. WEAK 5-10 KT
ANTICYCLONIC WINDS ARE NOTED WITH FAIR WEATHER. EXPECT MORE
CONVECTION OVER FLORIDA AND THE NE GULF OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. SEE ABOVE. A
MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM N COLOMBIA TO THE SW CARIBBEAN TO
BEYOND COSTA RICA. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-11N
BETWEEN 70W-82W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS
FURTHER N OVER NICARAGUA FROM 12N-15N BETWEEN 83W-85W.
ELSEWHERE... ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER JAMAICA AND E
CUBA FROM 17N-22N BETWEEN 76W-80W. 10-20 KT TRADEWINDS DOMINATE
THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST WINDS E OF 80W. EXPECT MORE
TROPICAL MOISTURE TO ADVECT OVER CENTRAL AMERICA...THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN...AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN...WITH CONVECTION OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1020 MB HIGH IS ALSO OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 23N63W. FURTHER
NE... A COLD FRONT EXTENDS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 32N40W
TO 27N50W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM S OF
THE FRONT. ANOTHER 1028 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE E
ATLANTIC NEAR 45N17W. A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SW TO 32N28W
TO 23N44W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER. EXPECT THE FRONT TO BECOME
STATIONARY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND CONTINUE TO PRODUCE
CONVECTION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA





This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net