[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 080548
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT MON AUG 08 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED FROM 10N22W TO 19N20W MOVING W AT 10
KT. SHORTWAVE INFRARED METEOSAT-9 SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A
BROAD LOW TO MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IN THE VICINITY OF
11N23W. THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN AN AREA OF DEEP-LAYERED TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER LOCATED SE OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. NO
SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED FROM 11N48W TO 18N45W MOVING W AT 15
KT. THE WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ AND AN AREA OF
HIGHER TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES FROM 08N-16N BETWEEN
46W-53W. GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE ALSO INDICATES THE WAVE COINCIDES
WITH A 700 MB...OR LOW TO MID-LEVEL...TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ATLC WITH AXIS IN THE VICINITY OF 49W. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP
CONVECTION IS NOTED WITH THE WAVE.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED FROM 14N68W TO 20N63W MOVING W AT
10-15 KT. THE WAVE CONTINUES WESTWARD ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY
OF A 1020 MB WESTERN ATLC HIGH CENTERED NORTH OF THE WAVE NEAR
25N65W. EXAMINING SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO UPPER AIR TIME SECTION
ANALYSES AND DOPPLER RADAR WIND PROFILES...IT APPEARS THE WAVE
HAS NOW PASSED WEST OF PUERTO RICO. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP
CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 19N16W
ALONG 10N22W TO 12N43W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS
EXTENDS FROM 12N43W TO 15N47W TO 15N57W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 06N-10N BETWEEN 19W-36W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA AND EXTENDS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SW TO
NEAR 18N95W. AT THE SURFACE...A 1016 MB HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR
26N86W AND IS PROVIDING MOSTLY FAIR CONDITIONS AND SKIES OVER A
LARGE PORTION OF THE GULF N OF 22N W OF 85W. WITH SURFACE
TROUGHING EXTENDING FROM THE REMNANTS OF EMILY ACROSS THE W ATLC
AND PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS
ARE NOTED S OF 27N E OF 85W. ANOTHER AREA OF ISOLATED SHOWERS
ARE OCCURRING OVER THE SW GULF OFF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA COAST.
THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE
GULF ALONG 25N THROUGH TUESDAY WITH S-SE WINDS INCREASING OVER
THE WESTERN GULF W OF 90W AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE
SOUTHERN U.S. PLAINS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS BISECTS THE
CARIBBEAN SEA. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE
CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 23N60W TO 21N71W TO 15N81W THEN OVER COSTA
RICA NEAR 09N83W. MOST LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UPPER LEVEL
FEATURE IS IN THE FORM OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OCCURRING
OFF THE NE COAST OF HONDURAS FROM 15N-18N BETWEEN 80W-87W.
FARTHER SOUTH...A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALSO MOVING INLAND
ACROSS SOUTHERN NICARAGUA S OF 13N W OF 81W. ELSEWHERE ACROSS
THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH WEAK SURFACE TROUGHING EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS IS
GENERATING AN AREA OF WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM 14N-18N
BETWEEN 57W-62W THAT IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE MOVING WESTWARD
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...
EASTERLY TRADES ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
STRONG DUE TO A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ALONG 25N IN THE W ATLC.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE REMNANT SURFACE CIRCULATION OF EMILY IS ANALYZED AS A 1011
MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 32N73W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM
THE LOW TO 29N79W WITH PLENTY OF CONVERGING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS S OF 30N W OF A LINE FROM 30N70W TO
THE FLORIDA STRAITS NEAR 23N81W. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION
IS OCCURRING WITH THE REMNANTS OF EMILY AS IT CONTINUES TO
DISSIPATE AND BECOME ABSORBED INTO A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE
NORTH. FARTHER EAST... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A DEEP LAYERED
LOW OVER THE CENTRAL NORTH ATLC CENTERED NEAR 44N45W AND AN
ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT
EXTENDING INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N42W THEN CONTINUES
ALONG 29N50W TO 31N61W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE
OCCURRING WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. THE REMAINDER
OF THE EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE
ANCHORED BY A 1022 MB HIGH CENTERED SOUTH OF THE AZORES NEAR
33N27W. THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SW FROM THE HIGH TO
23N45W THEN WESTWARD TO A 1020 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 25N65W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN




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