[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 060002
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT FRI AUG 05 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

THE REMNANTS OF EMILY IN THE FORM OF A 1012 MB LOW IS NEAR
23N78W. A SURFACE TROUGH ASSOCIATED TO THIS SYSTEM IS ANALYZED
FROM 28N74W TO THE LOW LEVEL CENTER NEAR 23N78W INTO THE
CARIBBEAN ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA ALONG 22N80W 19N82W TO 16N82W.
SCATTERED HEAVY SHOWERS AND GUSTY THUNDERSTORMS COVER A BROAD
AREA BETWEEN THE CARIBBEAN AND ATLC WATERS FROM 17N-25N BETWEEN
70W-80W. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE GRADUALLY BECOMING MORE CONDUCIVE
FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE OF REGENERATING INTO A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE
NORTHWEST AT 8-10 KT. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...THIS
DISTURBANCE WILL PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS TONIGHT
AND SATURDAY.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE EAST TROPICAL ATLC WITH
AXIS ANALYZED FROM 18N29W TO 13N31W...MOVING WNW AT 10-15 KT. A
SLIGHT CURVATURE OBSERVED IN THE LOW/MID LEVEL CLOUDS. NO
ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION IS OBSERVED.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC IS ANALYZED FROM
17N48W TO 10N50W MOVING W 15-20 KT. WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED INA
REGION OF ELEVATED VALUES OF MOISTURE ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER PRODUCT WITH A SLIGHT LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC CURVATURE IS
OBSERVED IN THE LOW LEVEL CLOUD FIELD. SCATTERED WEAK CONVECTION
IS IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE AXIS S OF 13N.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS WEST FROM THE AFRICAN COAST OF
SENEGAL NEAR 14N17W ALONG 11N22W TO 13N34W. THE ITCZ IS ANALYZED
FROM THIS POINT TO NEAR 15N47W...THEN RESUMING WEST OF THE
CENTRAL ATLC TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 10N52W TO THE BRAZIL COAST NEAR
8N60W. ISOLATED MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
WITHIN 50 NM N OF THE ITCZ W OF 52W. SCATTERED HEAVY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE VICINITY OF THE MONSOON TROUGH FROM
6N-12N BETWEEN THE COAST OF AFRICA AND 24W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SE
CONUS BRINGING ENE FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE GULF THIS EVENING. A
MID LEVEL WEAK CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS OVER THE NE BASIN...AND
BARELY SUPPORTS A SURFACE TROUGH AXIS FROM 30N87W TO 26N90W.
WHILE BROAD CYCLONIC TURNING SURROUNDS THE TROUGH
AXIS...SCATTERED WEAK CONVECTION IS OVER THE N CENTRAL BASIN N
OF 27N BETWEEN 89W-93W AFFECTING THE COASTAL WATERS OF LOUISIANA
AND MISSISSIPPI. OTHERWISE...A DRY SUBSIDENT AIRMASS ALOFT IS
SUPPRESSING DEEP CONVECTION ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA WITH
LIGHT TO MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC WINDS ANCHORED BY A 1014 MB HIGH
NEAR 28N93W.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN OVER THE N
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN N OF 17N BETWEEN 70W-80W INCLUDING INLAND
PORTIONS OVER CUBA AND HAITI. THIS ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED TO THE
REMNANT CONVECTION FROM EMILY CURRENTLY LOCATES OUTSIDE THE
CARIBBEAN NEAR 23N78W. A SURFACE TROUGH CROSSES CENTRAL CUBA
FROM THE LOW CENTER OF EMILY ALONG 22N80W INTO THE CARIBBEAN
ALONG 19N82W TO 16N82W WITHOUT ANY ASSOCIATED CONVECTION.
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN...AN UPPER RIDGE IS PRESENT
ACROSS THE AREA...BRINGING MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER WITH LIGHT TO
MODERATE TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA THIS EVENING.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE FAR SW
BASIN WITHIN 50 NM OFF THE ACROSS THE COAST OF SOUTHERN
NICARAGUA...COSTA RICA...PANAMA...AND COLOMBIA...DUE TO CLOSE
PROXIMITY TO THE MONSOON TROUGH.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED TO THE REMNANT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OF
EMILY IS AFFECTING THE ATLC WATERS N OF CUBA AND W OF THE
BAHAMAS S OF 25N BETWEEN 73W-78W. SCATTERED HEAVY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ROAM THIS AREA. ALSO...A SURFACE TROUGH ASSOCIATED
TO THIS SYSTEM IS ANALYZED FROM 28N74W TO THE LOW LEVEL CENTER
NEAR 23N78W INTO THE CARIBBEAN ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA. COMPUTER
MODELS SUGGEST THIS AREA OF CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NW
SPREADING OVER THE WATERS NEAR THE NW BAHAMAS AND EASTERN
FLORIDA SEABOARD OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. AN AREA OF WEAK
SCATTERED CONVECTION IS N OF 27N BETWEEN 60W-70W ASSOCIATED TO A
FRONTAL SYSTEM N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. A LARGE SURFACE RIDGE
CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC BASIN...
ANCHORED BY A 1028 MB HIGH SW OF THE AZORES NEAR 34N32W. THIS
FEATURE EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS WSW TO THE WEST ATLC NEAR 25N70W.
THE CIMSS SAHARAN AIR LAYER TRACKING PRODUCT AND LAST VISIBLE
METEOSAT-9 SATELLITE IMAGERY OF THE DAY SHOWED A LARGE AREA OF
AFRICAN DUST N OF 15N E OF 65W. WITHIN THIS AREA OF DRY DUSTY
AIR...AN ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION WAS FOUND ON
WATER VAPOR NEAR 32N45W WITHOUT ANY CONVECTION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

GARCIA



This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net