[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 051152
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT FRI AUG 05 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

THE REMNANTS OF EMILY IN THE FORM OF A SURFACE TROUGH IS
ANALYZED FROM THE SE BAHAMAS NEAR 23N74W ACROSS THE E TIP OF
CUBA ALONG 19N76W OVER JAMAICA TO NEAR 17N79W. SCATTERED TO
HEAVY SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 19N-21N W OF THE
TROUGH AXIS TO 78W. A BROAD AREA OF DENSE CLOUD COVER WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE
N CENTRAL CARIBBEAN/SW ATLC WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE FROM THE S TIP
OF HAITI NEAR 18N74W INTO THE W ATLC NEAR 25N66W INCLUDING
PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA...E CUBA...THE TURKS AND CAICOS...AND SE
BAHAMAS.
THIS SYSTEM REMAINS DISORGANIZED BUT UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BECOME A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT ON
SATURDAY. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THIS SYSTEM MAY REGENERATE INTO
A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES
NORTHWESTWARD AND NORTHWARD 15 MPH..

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE WAS ADDED IN THE E TROPICAL ATLC ANALYZED FROM
15N30W TO 6N20W MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN
AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER IMAGERY AND IS WELL DEFINED IN THE UPPER LEVEL SATELLITE
WINDS WITH A CURVATURE OBSERVED IN THE LOW/MID LEVEL CLOUDS.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 200/250 SW OF THE WAVE AXIS.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC IS ANALYZED FROM
15N41W TO 11N47W MOVING W 15-20 KT. WAVE REMAINS WELL DEFINED IN
THE UPPER LEVELS AS INDICATED BY THE UPPER LEVEL SATELLITE WINDS
WITH A SLIGHT CURVATURE OBSERVED IN THE LOW/MID LEVEL CLOUDS. NO
ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION IS OBSERVED.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC OFF THE
AFRICAN COAST NEAR DAKAR SENEGAL TO 12N24W. THE ITCZ AXIS
EXTENDS FROM 11N31W ALONG 14N39W TO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 9N61W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120/150
NM S OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 51W-56W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS WITHIN 120 NM ALONG THE COAST OF W AFRICA BETWEEN 7N-11N.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER RIDGE COVERS MOST OF THE GULF AND IS ANCHORED OVER E
TEXAS EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS INTO THE W ATLC GIVING THE GULF
EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE INLAND AND WITHIN 60 NM ALONG THE N GULF COAST
FROM DESTIN FLORIDA TO THE GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA. A WEAK SURFACE
RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE GULF EXTENDING FROM THE W ATLC
ACROSS FLORIDA WITH A 1015 MB HIGH LOCATED NEAR 26N91W LEAVING
THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH POSSIBLE
ISOLATED SHOWERS DOTTING THE GULF N OF 23N. THE WEAK SURFACE
RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE REGION THROUGH SAT. HIGHER PRESSURE IS
THEN FORECAST TO BUILD WESTWARD FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS THE
CENTRAL GULF BY MON.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
PRIMARY FOCUS THIS MORNING CONTINUES TO BE REMNANTS OF
EMILY...SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. THE CARIBBEAN IS DOMINATED
BY AN UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED NEAR 17N76W AND IS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE REMNANTS OF EMILY. THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM COLOMBIA
NEAR 10N75W ALONG 10N91W THEN INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION NEAR THE
COSTA RICA/NICARAGUA BORDER GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 12N BETWEEN 73W-81W. THE
REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AGAIN
THIS MORNING. THE SURFACE TROUGH...REMNANTS OF EMILY...WILL MOVE
N-NW OUT OF THE CARIBBEAN TO OVER THE BAHAMAS TODAY THROUGH
SUN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
PRIMARY FOCUS THIS MORNING CONTINUES TO BE REMNANTS OF
EMILY...SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. A LARGE SURFACE RIDGE
CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE ATLC BASIN ANCHORED BY A 1028 MB HIGH
ABOUT 425 NM SW OF THE AZORES N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA WITH A
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING THROUGH 32N41W ALONG 28N57W 27N72W
THEN ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE SURFACE
TROUGH...REMNANTS OF EMILY...WILL MOVE N-NW OUT OF THE CARIBBEAN
OVER THE BAHAMAS TODAY ACROSS THE BAHAMAS THROUGH SUN. A LOW
PRESSURE IS FORECASTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS AND
COULD REORGANIZE INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE AGAIN. THE WEAK SURFACE
RIDGE WILL RE-BUILD WESTWARD AS THE ABOVE LOW MOVES N OF THE
AREA LATE SUN THROUGH TUE. THE CENTRAL ATLC TROPICAL WAVE IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE W TROPICAL ATLC LATE SAT NIGHT
THROUGH TUE.


FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW






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