[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 041152
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT THU AUG 04 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL STORM EMILY IS CENTERED NEAR 17.1N 71.8W AT
04/1200 UTC...OR ABOUT 93 NM SSE OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI.
EMILY IS STATIONARY. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
1005 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 45 KT WITH GUSTS
TO 55 KT. SEE LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT5/WTNT35 AND THE FULL FORECAST
ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 FOR MORE
DETAILS. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 15N-18N BETWEEN
70W-72W WITH SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
COVERING THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA FROM 14N-20N BETWEEN 67W-74W.
RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 6-12 INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF
20 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI.
THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD
SLIDES. TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 2-4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED IN
THE SOUTHEAST AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS...AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS
ISLANDS. TROPICAL STORM EMILY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL
RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 1-2 INCHES IN PUERTO RICO.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC IS ANALYZED FROM
16N34W TO 9N41W MOVING W 10-15 KT. WAVE REMAINS WELL DEFINED IN
THE UPPER LEVELS AS INDICATED BY THE UPPER LEVEL SATELLITE WINDS
WITH A SLIGHT CURVATURE OBSERVED IN THE LOW/MID LEVEL CLOUDS. NO
ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION IS OBSERVED.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC OFF THE
AFRICAN COAST NEAR 13N17W ALONG 13N19W TO 11N29W. THE ITCZ AXIS
EXTENDS FROM 12N41W ALONG 10N50W TO 10N61W. CLUSTERS OF ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 5N-126N E OF 25W BETWEEN 16N-28W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER RIDGE COVERS MOST OF THE GULF AND IS ANCHORED OVER
CENTRAL ALABAMA. CLUSTERS OF ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE
OVER NE GULF FROM 23N-28N E OF 88W TO THE COAST OF FLORIDA. AN
UPPER LOW IS WELL INLAND OVER S MEXICO W OF MEXICO CITY WITH AN
UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING N OVER CENTRAL MEXICO WITH SW WINDS ALOFT
OVER THE SW GULF. ISOLATED SHOWERS REMAIN OVER THE SW GULF FROM
21N-24N W OF 94W TO INLAND OVER MEXICO. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE
CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE GULF EXTENDING FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS
S FLORIDA WITH A 1014 MB HIGH LOCATED NEAR 25N90W LEAVING THE
REMAINDER OF THE GULF UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AGAIN THIS
MORNING. WEAK SURFACE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE REGION
THROUGH FRI NIGHT. TROPICAL STORM EMILY IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO
THE SW ATLC SAT AND SUN DISRUPTING THE ATLC RIDGE. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN REBUILD FROM SW ATLC INTO THE CENTRAL GULF MON AS
EMILY LIFTS NE OF THE REGION.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
PRIMARY CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE TROPICAL STORM EMILY...SEE
SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO
DIPS S OVER THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 21N TO OVER W CUBA BETWEEN 81W-85W.
AN UPPER RIDGE COVERS MOST OF THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN
ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM EMILY. THESE TWO UPPER RIDGES ARE
INDUCING AN INVERTED UPPER TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM NE HONDURAS
NEAR 15N85W TO E CUBA NEAR 21N78W. THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS
FROM COLOMBIA NEAR 10N75W ACROSS PANAMA NEAR 9N79W THEN COSTA
RICA INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION GENERATING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SW CARIBBEAN
S OF 11N BETWEEN 75W-82W TO INLAND OVER COLOMBIA AND PANAMA.
SCATTERED SHOWERS GENERATED BY TROPICAL STORM EMILY DOT PORTIONS
OF THE E AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN N OF 12N BETWEEN 66W-76W AND N OF
17N TO OVER THE VIRGIN ISLANDS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE
CARIBBEAN UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AGAIN THIS MORNING. TROPICAL
STORM EMILY IS EXPECTED TO CROSS BETWEEN HISPANIOLA AND CUBA
LATE TONIGHT/EARLY FRI THEN MOVE INTO THE SW NORTH ATLC.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE UPPER RIDGE THAT DOMINATES THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS OVER
THE W ATLC W OF 71W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 75/90 NM OF LINE FROM THE FLORIDA COAST
NEAR FORT LAUDERDALE ACROSS THE N BAHAMA ISLANDS TO NEAR
BERMUDA. A LARGE SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE
REMAINDER OF THE ATLC BASIN ANCHORED BY A 1027 MB HIGH ABOUT
300 NM SW OF THE AZORES N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA WITH A SURFACE
RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING THROUGH 32N40W ALONG 28N63W 26N70W THEN
ACROSS S FLORIDA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. TROPICAL STORM EMILY
IN THE N/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN IS EXPECTED TO CROSS BETWEEN
HISPANIOLA/CUBA LATE TONIGHT/EARLY FRI THEN MOVE INTO THE SW
ATLC AND SLOWLY INTENSIFY REMAINING OVER THE W ATLC E OF FLORIDA
THROUGH SUN MORNING THEN MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA SUN NIGHT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW






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