[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 030540
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT WED AUG 03 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL STORM EMILY IS CENTERED NEAR 16.3N 67.5W AT 03/0300 UTC
OR ABOUT 115 NM SSW OF PONCE PUERTO RICO AND ABOUT 190 NM SE OF
SANTO DOMINGO DOMINICAN REPUBLIC MOVING WNW AT 12 KT. ESTIMATED
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND
SPEED IS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. SEE LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE
PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT5/WTNT35 AND THE
FULL FORECAST ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT5/WTNT25
FOR MORE DETAILS. SCATTERED/NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM
15N-17N BETWEEN 65W-67W WITH SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION COVERING THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA FROM 14N-18N
BETWEEN 63W-68W. RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 4-6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED
IN PUERTO RICO...THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...AND HAITI WITH
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS
COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES IN
AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 2-4
INCHES ARE EXPECTED IN THE SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS AND TURKS AND
CAICOS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC IS ANALYZED FROM
19N32W TO A 1008 MB LOW NEAR 10N34W MOVING W 15-20 KT. WAVE IS
EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF MODERATE MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER SATELLITE IMAGERY AND WELL DEFINED IN
THE UPPER LEVEL SATELLITE WINDS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS W OF THE LOW FROM 9N-11N BETWEEN 35W-38W.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC IS ANALYZED FROM 19N53W
14N55W 10N53W MOVING W 15-20 KT. WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN
AREA OF OF DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER SATELLITE IMAGERY. NO ASSOCIATED SHOWERS/
CONVECTION ARE OBSERVED.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC OFF THE
AFRICAN COAST NEAR 17N16W S TO 14N19W THEN W ALONG 12N27W
THROUGH THE 1008 MB LOW NEAR 10N34W TO 7N43W. THE ITCZ AXIS
CONTINUES TO BE DISTORTED BY TROPICAL STORM EMILY. SCATTERED
MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-11N E OF 17W TO INLAND
OVER W AFRICA. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 90/120 NM OF 10N BETWEEN 18W-26W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE N GULF N OF 24N AND IS ANCHORED OVER N
ALABAMA. AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOPED
INLAND OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA ARE MOVING OVER THE FAR E GULF
WATERS BY THE EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND WITH THE HIGH DEBRIS
CLOUDS COVER THE AREA E OF A LINE FROM PENSACOLA FLORIDA TO KEY
WEST FLORIDA. AN UPPER LOW IS OVER MEXICO NEAR VERACRUZ WITH AN
UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING NE ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE TO 23N91W
PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
S OF 20N BETWEEN 91W-96W TO INLAND OVER MEXICO. A WEAK SURFACE
RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE GULF EXTENDING FROM THE W ATLC
ACROSS S FLORIDA WITH A 1013 MB HIGH LOCATED NEAR 26N92W LEAVING
THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AGAIN
TONIGHT. WEAK SURFACE RIDGE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE GULF AND
DOMINATE THE REGION THROUGH SAT. TROPICAL STORM EMILY WILL
DISRUPT THIS RIDGE AS IT MOVES NORTHWARD IN THE W ATLC THIS
WEEKEND.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
PRIMARY CONCERN TONIGHT IS TROPICAL STORM EMILY IN THE
CARIBBEAN...SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. AN UPPER RIDGE COVERS
MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM EMILY. THE
MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM COLOMBIA ACROSS S PANAMA INTO THE E
PACIFIC REGION GENERATING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 12N W
OF 77W TO INLAND OVER PANAMA. BANDS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS
GENERATED BY TROPICAL STORM EMILY DOT THE E CARIBBEAN N OF 13N E
OF 74W LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AGAIN TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM EMILY IS FORECAST TO
INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY AS IT MOVES TOWARD HISPANIOLA LATER THIS
MORNING THEN CROSSING HISPANIOLA BY WED EVENING INTO THE SW ATLC
ON THU.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER TROUGH DIPS INTO THE W ATLC WITH THE AXIS TROUGH 32N73W
TO THE N BAHAMA ISLANDS NEAR 26N77W SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH
AT 03/0300 UTC ENTERING THE W ATLC FROM A STATIONARY BOUNDARY N
OF THE DISCUSSION AREA THROUGH 31N69W ALONG 30N77W TO JUST OFF
NE FLORIDA NEAR JACKSONVILLE AND GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF A LINE FROM 29N64W TO 26N74W WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE REMAINDER OF
THE SURFACE TROUGH. A LARGE SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE
REMAINDER OF THE ATLC BASIN ANCHORED BY A 1026 MB HIGH N OF THE
DISCUSSION AREA AND ABOUT 350 NM SW OF THE AZORES WITH A SURFACE
RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING THROUGH 32N37W ALONG 27N52W THEN W ACROSS S
FLORIDA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE LARGE AREA OF SAHARAN DUST
IS OBSERVED ON THE LAST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES FROM 12N-27N E
OF 50W WITH A NARROWER SWATH BEING FROM 16N-24N BETWEEN 50W-70W.
WEAK SURFACE RIDGE WILL SHIFT N TO NEAR 29N THU. THE SURFACE
TROUGH OVER THE W ATLC WILL STALL THEN DISSIPATE WED. TROPICAL
STORM EMILY IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AND MOVE NW FROM THE NE
CARIBBEAN INTO THE BAHAMAS THU THROUGH SUN.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW





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