[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 030002
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...AMENDED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT TUE AUG 02 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

TROPICAL STORM EMILY IS CENTERED NEAR 16.0N 66.1W AT 03/0000 UTC
OR ABOUT 165 MI S OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO MOVING W AT 12 KT.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WIND SPEED IS 50 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. EMILY CONTINUES MOVING
WESTWARD. THE OUTER RAINBANDS ARE MOVING ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND
THE LESSER ANTILLES. ACCORDING TO THE WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
SAN JUAN...GENERATED RAIN ACCUMULATIONS ARE 1 INCH AT THE MOMENT.
HEAVY CONVECTION ASSOCIATED TO THE CORE OF THE SYSTEM IS NOT
AFFECTING LAND AT THE MOMENT. THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC ARE
STARTING TO RECEIVE SOME RAIN FROM THE OUTER RAINBANDS OF EMILY.
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. SEE LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE
PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT5/WTNT35 KNHC
AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED IN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC FROM 11N30W TO
19N29W MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. THERE IS A LOW PRESSURE OF 1008 MB
CENTERED AT 11N30W ASSOCIATED TO THIS WAVE. A CLUSTER OF
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION LIES AHEAD OF THIS WAVE
ABOUT 388 NM. ANOTHER AREA OF CONVECTION LIES BEHIND THE WAVE
FROM 5N-13N BETWEEN 20W-30W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED FROM 9N50W TO 18N52W MOVING W AT 15
KT. AT THE TIME THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION ASSOCIATED TO
IT SINCE MOST OF THE MOISTURE LIES AHEAD AND IS MOSTLY
ASSOCIATED TO T.S. EMILY.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 14N17W
ALONG 11N30W 12N40W TO 10N50W. ISOLATED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION LIES S OF THE TROUGH FROM 5N-11N BETWEEN 20W-30W. A
CLUSTER OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS LOCATED S OF THE
TROUGH AHEAD OF A TROPICAL WAVE FROM 8N-11N BETWEEN 33W-37W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SHARP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING OFF
THE EASTERN CONUS SEABOARD. THE SOUTHERN EXTENSION OF ENERGY
FROM THE UPPER TROUGH WAS DRAGGED INTO THE NE GULF BY THE
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW FROM AN UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SE
CONUS. THIS PIECE OF ENERGY IS NOW EMBEDDED IN A DRY SUBSIDENT
AIRMASS ALOFT SUPPRESSING PRIOR DEEP CONVECTION...AND LEAVING
ONLY A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS N OF 27N E OF 80W. AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW MOVES ACROSS THE CITY OF VERACRUZ IN MEXICO. THIS FEATURE IS
PROVIDING SOME MID TO UPPER LEVEL LIFTING ACROSS THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE THIS EVENING...GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THIS AREA S OF 22N. THE REMAINDER
OF THE GULF IS EXPERIENCING FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC WINDS OVER MOST
OF THE AREA...ANCHORED BY A 1015 MB HIGH OVER THE CENTRAL GULF
NEAR 26N90W. THE SURFACE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN ACROSS THE
GULF THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
TROPICAL STORM EMILY CONTINUES TO BE THE PRIMARY FOCUS ACROSS
THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. FOR
MORE INFORMATION...SEE SPECIAL FEATURE ABOVE. THE ONLY OTHER
AREA OF ACTIVE WEATHER BESIDES EMILY IS OVER THE FAR SW BASIN
WITH ISOLATED WEAK SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS S OF 12N W OF 74W
DUE TO CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS
PANAMA TO NORTHERN COLOMBIA. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER
WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS IS OBSERVED ELSEWHERE ACROSS
THE DISCUSSION AREA THIS EVENING.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A SHARP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OFF THE EASTERN CONUS SEABOARD
ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLC. THIS UPPER FEATURE SUPPORTS A NEARLY
STATIONARY LOW PRESSURE/FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT ENTERS OUR
DISCUSSION AREA AS A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 32N3W INTO NORTHERN
FLORIDA ALONG 30N1W. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM
29N73W INTO SOUTHERN FLORIDA ALONG THE CITY OF BOCA RATON.
SCATTERED WEAK TO MODERATE CONVECTION IS N OF 27N BETWEEN
68W-77W. A BROAD REGION OF SCATTERED WEAK CONVECTION LINKED TO
THE MOISTURE BEING CARRIED BY T.S. EMILY AND A TROPICAL WAVE
POSITIONED ALONG 52W IS LOCATED FROM 18N-21N BETWEEN 50W-60W. A
LARGE SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE ATLC BASIN...ANCHORED BY A
1025 MB HIGH N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA...SW OF THE AZORES NEAR
33N33W. THIS FEATURE EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS WSW TO THE BAHAMAS.
THE CIMSS SAHARAN AIR LAYER TRACKING PRODUCT AND LAST VISIBLE
METEOSAT-9 SATELLITE IMAGERY OF THE DAY SHOWED A LARGE AREA OF
AFRICAN DUST N 14N E OF 55W. WITHIN THIS AREA OF DRY DUSTY
AIR...AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION WAS FOUND ON WATER
VAPOR NEAR 28N38W WITHOUT ANY DEEP CONVECTION. FOR INFORMATION
ABOUT TROPICAL WAVES AND MONSOON TROUGH...SEE THESE SECTIONS AT
THE BEGINNING OF THE DISCUSSION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

FG/NAR



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