[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 021154
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT TUE AUG 02 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL STORM EMILY IS CENTERED NEAR 15.3N 63.7W AT 02/1200 UTC
OR ABOUT 230 NM SE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO MOVING W AT 12 KT.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WIND SPEED IS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. SEE LATEST NHC
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT5/
WTNT35 AND THE FULL FORECAST ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 FOR MORE DETAILS. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION
IS FROM 13N-16N BETWEEN 60W-63W AND SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 75 NM OF A LINE FROM 15N63W TO 16N67W.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ARE E OF THE
LESSER ANTILLES FROM 11N-19N BETWEEN 53W-60W. RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
OF 2-4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED IN THE N WINDWARD ISLANDS AND LEEWARD
ISLANDS WITH ACCUMULATIONS OF 4-6 INCHES EXPECTED IN PUERTO RICO
AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10
INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING
FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC IS ANALYZED FROM 12N51W
9N52W 5N53W MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN
AREA OF OF DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER SATELLITE IMAGERY. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 7N-12N BETWEEN 51-55W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC OFF THE
AFRICAN COAST JUST S OF DAKAR SENEGAL ALONG 12N24W 11N31W TO
11N42W. THE ITCZ AXIS CONTINUES TO 10N50W AND IS BEING DISTORTED
BY TROPICAL STORM EMILY. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM OF A LINE FROM 11N24W TO 9N35W AND
FROM 8N-11N BETWEEN 39W-44W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER RIDGE COVERS MOST OF THE N GULF N OF 25N AND IS
ANCHORED OVER W ARKANSAS/E OKLAHOMA. AN UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE
THE REMAINDER OF THE SE CONUS TO OVER NE FLORIDA SUPPORTING A
LOW AND DISSIPATING STATIONARY BOUNDARY THAT CURRENTLY IS
REMAINING OVER S GEORGIA TO CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI. THIS IS
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
INLAND AND OVER THE NE GULF WATERS N OF 23N E OF 90W TO OVER THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA. AN UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE S GULF EXTENDING
FROM 23N91W INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND S MEXICO NEAR THE
ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 21N W OF 94W TO INLAND OVER MEXICO.
A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE GULF EXTENDING FROM THE W
ATLC ACROSS S FLORIDA WITH A 1015 MB HIGH LOCATED NEAR 26N87W
LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS
MORNING. WEAK SURFACE RIDGE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE GULF AND
DOMINATE THE REGION THROUGH FRI. TROUGH ACROSS THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE WILL MOVE W THEN DISSIPATE THIS EVENING.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
PRIMARY CONCERN TONIGHT IS TROPICAL STORM EMILY IN THE FAR E
CARIBBEAN...SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. AN UPPER RIDGE IN THE NW
CARIBBEAN IS ANCHORED W OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS NEAR 19N83W
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
S OF 18N W OF 84W TO INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN. A SECOND UPPER
RIDGE COVERS THE E CARIBBEAN ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM
EMILY. THESE UPPER RIDGES ARE INDUCING AN INVERTED UPPER TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL NICARAGUA NEAR 13N84W NE TO E CUBA NEAR
21N78W. THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM
COLOMBIA NEAR 10N75W TO ACROSS PANAMA/COSTA RICA INTO THE E
PACIFIC REGION NEAR 9N83W GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 12N BETWEEN COLOMBIA AND
NICARAGUA. BANDS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS GENERATED BY TROPICAL
STORM EMILY DOT THE REMAINDER OF THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 70W
LEAVING THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS
MORNING. TROPICAL STORM EMILY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WNW ACROSS THE
NE CARIBBEAN THROUGH LATE WED THEN INTO THE SW ATLC THU. E
TRADES WILL INCREASE IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN LATE THU AND
THROUGH SAT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER TROUGH IS DIPPING S OVER THE E CONUS AND INTO THE W
ATLC N OF 28N W OF 73W SUPPORTING A DISSIPATING FRONTAL BOUNDARY
N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA BUT CONTINUES TO GENERATE SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 90/120 NM OF LINE FROM
29N80W TO BEYOND 32N71W. A LARGE SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE
ATLC BASIN ANCHORED BY A 1024 MB HIGH N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA
AND ABOUT 350 NM SW OF THE AZORES AND A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDING THROUGH 32N42W ALONG 27N59W THEN W ACROSS S FLORIDA
INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. A LARGE AREA OF SAHARAN DUST IS
OBSERVED ON THE FIRST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES FROM 12N-27N E OF
50W. WEAK SURFACE RIDGE WILL REMAIN THROUGH WED. TROPICAL STORM
EMILY IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES WNW FROM THE NE
CARIBBEAN INTO THE BAHAMAS THU THROUGH SAT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW




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