[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 011754
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT MON AUG 01 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A 1008 MB LOW IS E OF BARBADOS NEAR 14N57W MOVING WNW 10-15
KT. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM
13N-15N BETWEEN 57W-59W. SCATTERED SHOWERS COVER A BROADER AREA
FROM 11N-18N BETWEEN 54W-64W TO INCLUDE THE E CARIBBEAN. A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM LATER TODAY. ANOTHER HURRICANE
HUNTER AIRCRAFT WILL INVESTIGATE THE DISTURBANCE THIS EVENING.
IF THE SYSTEM DOES INTENSIFY...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS WOULD BE
ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS AND THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS ON VERY SHORT NOTICE. INTERESTS IN THESE AREAS
SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. REGARDLESS
OF TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS TO THE E CARIBBEAN.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE E OF SOUTH AMERICA IS ANALYZED ALONG 46W/47W FROM
4N-14N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. THIS WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD
AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE THAT IS NOW ANNEXED TO THE MOISTURE OVER
THE SPECIAL FEATURE. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 5N-11N BETWEEN 44W-54W.

TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND S MEXICO IS ANALYZED
FROM 24N94W TO 15N94W MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. THIS WAVE IS ALSO
EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER SATELLITE IMAGERY. WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS NEAR TAMPICO MEXICO FROM 17N-23N BETWEEN
95W-99W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 21N17W TO
14N30W TO 9N39W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS
FROM 9N39W TO 10N45W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
OFF THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA FROM 8N-14N BETWEEN 18W-22W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 9N-11N
BETWEEN 30W-38W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE W GULF OF MEXICO. SEE ABOVE. A 1018
MB HIGH IS OVER S TEXAS NEAR 29N97W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER. A
CLUSTER OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS HOWEVER ALONG THE
COAST OF LOUISIANA FROM 28N-30N BETWEEN 91W-93W. A 1014 MB LOW
IS CENTERED OVER S GEORGIA NEAR 31N82W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS
SW FROM THE LOW TO THE NE GULF AT 30N87W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS S OF THE TROUGH AXIS OVER THE NE GULF FROM 28N-30N
BETWEEN 83W-86W. EXPECT CONTINUED CONVECTION OVER THE W GULF...
AND THE NE GULF OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A SPECIAL FEATURE IS APPROACHING THE E CARIBBEAN WITH INCLEMENT
WEATHER. SEE ABOVE. ELSEWHERE...AN AREA OF WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN AND THE GULF OF
HONDURAS FROM 15N-21N BETWEEN 78W-89W. FURTHER S ...THE MONSOON
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM N COLOMBIA TO PANAMA TO COSTA RICA.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS N OF PANAMA FROM 9N-11N BETWEEN
77W-81W. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
BETWEEN 65W-75W.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1030 MB HIGH IS CENTERED W OF THE AZORES NEAR 35N35W. A RIDGE
AXIS EXTENDS SW FROM THE HIGH TO 28N60W TO THE N BAHAMAS AT
27N79W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER. ALONG THE COAST OF W AFRICA THE
CIMSS SAHARAN AIR LAYER TRACKING PRODUCT AND VISIBLE METEOSAT-9
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW A LARGE AREA OF AFRICAN DUST FROM 16N-30N
E OF 38W. ELSEWHERE...THE TROPICAL WAVE AND SPECIAL FEATURE ARE
THE PREDOMINATE WEATHER PRODUCERS IN THE BASIN. OF INTEREST IN
IN THE UPPER LEVELS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 26N44W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE E OF THE CENTER FROM 25N-28N BETWEEN
38W-41W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA







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