[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 010548
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT MON AUG 01 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ANALYZED AS A 1009 MB LOW OVER
200 NM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES NEAR 13N56W MOVING WNW 10 TO 15
KT PRODUCING A BROAD AREA OF CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/
ISOLATED STRONG TO SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN WITHIN 120
NM OF LINE FROM 13N52W TO THE LESSER ANTILLES NEAR MARTINIQUE. A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR A TROPICAL STORM COULD FORM IN THIS AREA
LATER TODAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. IF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMES A TROPICAL CYCLONE TODAY...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS WOULD
BE ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS AND THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS ON VERY SHORT NOTICE...AND INTERESTS IN THESE
AREAS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.  A
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE AREA
THIS MORNING. REGARDLESS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION...THIS
SYSTEM WILL BRING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS TO
PORTIONS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC IS ANALYZED ALONG
43W/44W FROM 13N-24N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. WAVE IS BENEATH A
BROAD UPPER HIGH AND IS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF WEAK LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER SATELLITE
IMAGERY. NO SIGNIFICANT SHOWERS/CONVECTION IS NOTED.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC IS ANALYZED FROM 21N58W
OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES NEAR 16N61W TO 11N59W MOVING W 15-20
KT. WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE AS
DEPICTED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER SATELLITE IMAGERY. WAVE IS
AT THE LEADING EDGE OF THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW IN
THE SPECIAL FEATURES. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 11N-18N BETWEEN 60W-63W.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE S GULF OF MEXICO IS ANALYZED FROM 24N89W TO
INLAND OVER S MEXICO NEAR 18N91W MOVING W NEAR 10-15 KT. WAVE IS
EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER SATELLITE IMAGERY. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE S OF 22N TO INLAND OVER S MEXICO BETWEEN
91W-96W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC OFF THE
AFRICAN COAST NEAR 21N17W ALONG 19N21W 9N31W TO 9N34W. THE ITCZ
AXIS CONTINUES ALONG 10N38W TO 9N42W THEN RESUMES NEAR 7N46W TO
INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 9N61W AND IS BEING DISTORTED BY
THE LOW IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES. A SURFACE TROUGH IS EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE ITCZ EXTENDING FROM 22N42W TO 3N47W WITH SCATTERED
MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION FROM 4N-9N W OF THE TROUGH TO 56W.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE
WITHIN 90 NM OF 10N BETWEEN 26W-43W AND WITHIN 120/150 NM E OF
THE SURFACE TROUGH.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SE CONUS IS GIVING THE GULF NEAR
ZONAL EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND IS BEING RE-ENFORCED OVER THE S
GULF BY AN UPPER LOW IN THE W CARIBBEAN INCREASING UPPER LEVEL
WINDS OVER THE E GULF AND GIVING THE S GULF S OF 24N E OF 88W
ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORMS. AT 01/0300 UTC A WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH IS OVER THE NE GULF EXTENDING FROM S GEORGIA NEAR
VALDOSTA ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO 28N87W PRODUCING
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 60 NM E OF THE
TROUGH TO JUST OFF THE FLORIDA COAST NEAR CEDAR KEY. ISOLATED
SHOWERS DOT THE IMMEDIATE N GULF COAST WATERS W OF THE SURFACE
TROUGH TO THE LOUISIANA/TEXAS BORDER. A WEAK 1018 MB HIGH IS
ALONG THE SW COAST OF LOUISIANA NEAR 29N93W. THE WEAK SURFACE
RIDGE ACROSS THE N GULF WILL DOMINATE THE REGION THROUGH FRI.
THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SW GULF MON THROUGH TUE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LOW COVERS THE W CARIBBEAN CENTERED ALONG THE NE COAST
OF HONDURAS COVERING THE AREA W OF 81W AND PRODUCING SCATTERED
TO HEAVY SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM
12N-19N W OF 82W TO INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING AND
MUDSLIDES OVER INLAND AREAS OF NICARAGUA...HONDURAS...BELIZE...
AND GUATEMALA. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF 21N TO
OVER CUBA AND THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL W OF 80W. UPPER RIDGE
COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN ANCHORED JUST E OF THE
LESSER ANTILLES INDUCING AN INVERTED UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FROM E PANAMA TO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
GENERATING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER HISPANIOLA AND THE IN THE GULF OF GONAVE...
FROM 14N-19N BETWEEN 76W-80W INCLUDING JAMAICA...AND FROM
10N-12N BETWEEN 74W-77W INCLUDING THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. THIS IS
LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN UNDER MOSTLY FAIR
CONDITIONS TONIGHT. TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES WILL
MOVE INTO THE E CARIBBEAN TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN BY TUE. THE SURFACE LOW IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE NE CARIBBEAN TUE THROUGH WED...POSSIBLY AS A
TROPICAL CYCLONE.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE PRIMARY CONCERN TONIGHT REMAINS THE LOW IN THE SPECIAL
FEATURES ABOVE. THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SE CONUS EXTENDS INTO
THE W ATLC OFF THE GEORGIA COAST TO 30N65W COVERING THE W ATLC
WITH A DEEP LAYERED RIDGE AND AT 01/0300 UTC A WEAK 1018 MB HIGH
IS NEAR 30N73W. AT 01/0000 UTC A 1019 MB HIGH IS ANALYZED NEAR
26N65W. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SURFACE
RIDGE EXTENDING FROM 31N63W TO 29N67W. A PAIR OF UPPER LOWS ARE
IN THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 29N56W AND 28N43W BUT ARE NOT PRODUCING
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER. A LARGE SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE
ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1029 MB HIGH N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA AND
ABOUT 300 NM WSW OF THE AZORES. A LARGE AREA OF SAHARAN DUST IS
OBSERVED ON THE LAST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES FROM 13N-29N E OF
40W. WEAK SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE W ATLC WILL PERSIST THROUGH MON
NIGHT THEN SHIFT S TO NEAR 26N TUE. THE SURFACE LOW IN THE
SPECIAL FEATURES WILL MOVE FROM THE NE CARIBBEAN INTO THE SW
ATLC LATE WED OR EARLY THU AND FRI POSSIBLY AS A TROPICAL
CYCLONE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW




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