[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 312342
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST SUN JAN 31 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2315 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

FROM SOUTHERN COASTAL LIBERIA NEAR 5N9W TO 2N20W 1N30W 1N40W
1N45W...TO THE EQUATOR ALONG 50W AT THE COAST OF NORTHEASTERN
BRAZIL. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE TO THE SOUTH OF 6N13W
5N18W 4N25W 4N40W 5N48W 5N52W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND FROM THE BAHAMAS TO WESTERN CUBA INTO
THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE COLD FRONT FROM 24 HOURS AGO MOVED THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA
DURING THE TIME FROM 31/1200 UTC AND 31/1800 UTC. UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST WITH THE
SOUTHERLY AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. THE COLD FRONT NOW PASSES
FROM ANDROS ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS TO WESTERN CUBA...BECOMING
STATIONARY TO THE EAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND ENDING IN
THE GULF OF HONDURAS. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA
WATERS TO THE SOUTH OF 20N TO THE WEST OF 83W.

THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY TO SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW THAT
COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE WEST OF HISPANIOLA IS DIRECTLY
RELATED TO THE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW THAT COVERS THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 10N TO THE WEST OF 50W.
A SURFACE-TO-LOW LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 15N75W 12N77W TOWARD
THE GULF OF URABA ALONG THE COLOMBIA COAST. THIS TROUGH IS MOST
PROBABLY RELATED TO BROAD CLIMATOLOGICAL CYCLONIC FLOW IN THIS
AREA. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN CLUSTERS OF LOW LEVEL TO MIDDLE
LEVEL CLOUDS THAT ARE IN A CLOUD LINE...WITHIN 30 NM TO 60 NM
ON EITHER SIDE OF 13N60W 15N65W...17N67W JUST TO THE SOUTH OF
PUERTO RICO...TO 21N67W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE COLD FRONT THAT PASSED THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO DURING
THE LAST 24 HOURS NOW PASSES THROUGH BERMUDA TO 29N70W...
TO ELEUTHERA ISLAND AND ANDROS ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS...BEYOND
WESTERN CUBA. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE
AREA TO THE NORTH OF 10N TO THE WEST OF 40W. THIS CYCLONIC FLOW
MOVES AROUND A 1021 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 27N51W.
CYCLONIC WIND FLOW FROM THE SURFACE INTO THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE COVERS THE AREA TO THE NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN AFRICA
AND 35W. A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
NEAR 27N27W...AND THE SURFACE 1000 MB LOW CENTER IS NEAR 28N27W.
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACTUALLY EVEN PASSES THROUGH 19N27W TO
14N35W. FRONTAL BOUNDARIES HAVE BEEN SPINNING THROUGH THE AREA
AS RE-INFORCING SHOTS OF COMPARATIVELY COLDER AIR ALTERNATELY
HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING AND DISSIPATING. SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE AREA FROM 23N TO 30N BETWEEN 18W AND 29W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE.

$$
MT




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