[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 311116
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST SUN JAN 31 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1115 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N10W 3N20W 2N35W EQ50W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-5N
BETWEEN 17W-30W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM EQ-3N
BETWEEN 30W-38W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 0900 UTC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM S FLORIDA TO W CUBA
TO BELIZE ALONG 26N80W 22N85W 16N88W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS OVER THE SE GULF OF MEXICO FROM 23N-25N BETWEEN
85W-87W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE PRESENTLY SEEN ON RADAR OVER
SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS. 15-20 SE WINDS ARE OVER THE
STRAITS OF FLORIDA. 10-15 KT N WINDS ARE OVER THE MAJORITY OF
THE GULF W OF THE COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES ARE STILL IN THE 70'S
OVER SOUTH FLORIDA AND ARE IN THE 30'S AND 40'S OVER THE NORTH
GULF STATES. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...SW UPPER LEVEL WINDS PREVAIL
WITH SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE ENTIRE GULF.
EXPECT...THE FRONT TO STALL AND BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS WITH SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
AS OF 0900 UTC...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA AND THE YUCATAN CHANNEL N OF THE FRONT. SIMILAR
SHOWERS ARE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA FROM
9N-17N BETWEEN 80W-86W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALSO OVER THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS N OF 15N E OF 70W DUE TO AN OLD DISSIPATED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A 1006 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER N COLOMBIA NEAR
10N76W. A TIGHT SURFACE GRADIENT IS PRODUCING STRONG TRADEWINDS
OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA. NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS ARE ALONG THE
COAST OF N COLOMBIA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ALONG 70W. VERY STRONG SUBSIDENCE
IS STILL PREVENTING DEEP CONVECTION FROM FORMING OVER THE
MAJORITY OF THE CARIBBEAN E OF THE FRONT. EXPECT...CONTINUED
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA...NW CARIBBEAN...AND W CUBA FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS
DUE TO THE FRONT. ALSO EXPECT MORE SHOWERS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN
AND CENTRAL AMERICA.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 32N75W TO S FLORIDA AT
27N80W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 45 NM OF THE FRONT. A 1022
MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 28N53W. A 996
MB GALE LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 29N30W. AN
OCCLUDED FRONT IS N OF THE LOW CENTER ALONG 30N34W 33N30W
31N26W. A COLD FRONT CONTINUES S TO 24N27W 21N30W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS E OF THE LOW CENTER FROM 28N-30N BETWEEN
28W-30W...AND E OF THE COLD FRONT FROM 25N-30N BETWEEN 24W-26W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALSO WITHIN 45 NM OF THE REMAINDER OF THE
FRONTS. RESIDUAL WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM A
DISSIPATED COLD FRONT IS FURTHER E...NW OF THE CANARY ISLANDS
FROM 29N-35N BETWEEN 13W-22W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF 20N AND W OF 40W. A
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 30N30W. UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC
FLOW IS N OF 20N BETWEEN 20W-40W. ZONAL FLOW COVERS THE
REMAINDER OF THE ATLANTIC. EXPECT...THE COLD FRONT OVER THE W
ATLANTIC TO MOVE E OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND EXTEND FROM 32N55W
TO S FLORIDA WITH SHOWERS. ALSO EXPECT A GOOD AMOUNT OF COLD AIR
ADVECTION BEHIND THIS FRONT. ALSO EXPECT THE E ATLANTIC LOW AND
FRONTAL SYSTEM TO MOVE E AND NE NEAR 27N21N IN 24 HOURS WITH
SHOWERS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE.

$$
FORMOSA






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