[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 291123
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST FRI JAN 29 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED FROM CENTRAL LIBERIA NEAR 6N9W ALONG
4N20W 2N30W 2N40W TO THE NE BRAZIL COAST NEAR 3S49W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 1S-2N BETWEEN
20W-24W...FROM 4N-6N BETWEEN 22W-27W...AND FROM 4N-5N BETWEEN
42W-44W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE HAS BEGUN TO SEEP INTO THE WRN GULF OF MEXICO
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT IS MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS TEXAS AND
SHOULD MOVE OFFSHORE WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. A WARM FRONT
LINES THE NRN GULF FROM THE TEXAS/LOUISIANA BORDER ALONG THE
COASTLINE TO S OF MOBILE ALABAMA. RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE TEXAS COASTLINE...AS WELL
AS ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. ALOFT...MOIST
SWLY FLOW COVERS THE BASIN AROUND THE E SIDE OF AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER WRN TEXAS SUPPORTING UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO
MOVE EWD SUPPORTING THE FRONT CURRENTLY OVER TEXAS. GALE FORCE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE SW GULF S OF 24N BEHIND THE FRONT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE MAJORITY OF THE CARIBBEAN IS EXPERIENCING GENERALLY FAIR
WEATHER UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT
AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALONG 76W. THE END OF SHEAR LINE
EXTENDING N OF HISPANIOLA ENTERS THE NW CARIBBEAN TO N OF
JAMAICA. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE NOTED FROM 18N-19N BETWEEN
74W-78W...AND OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA. A SECOND SHEAR
LINE ENTERS THE SE CARIBBEAN LINING THE VENEZUELA COAST FROM
NEAR TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO ALONG 11N61W TO 12N69W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE AXIS. FRESH TO STRONG TRADEWINDS
PREVAIL ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WITH STRONGER GALE FORCE WINDS
FROM 11N-14N BETWEEN 75W-77W NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. THESE
WINDS ARE SUPPORTED BY A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE SW N ATLC AND LOWER PRESSURE OVER COLOMBIA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE SW N ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1024 MB
HIGH NEAR 29N73W BRINGING GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA
SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALONG 76W. FARTHER E...A COLD
FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH ITS WAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC ENTERING
THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N45W CONTINUING ALONG 25N49W 22N62W
WHERE IT LOSES FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS AND BECOMES A SHEAR LINE
TO N OF HAITI NEAR 20N72W AND INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN. ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND WITHIN 60 NM
EITHER SIDE OF THE SHEAR AXIS. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING
FROM NOVA SCOTIA TO NEAR 32N43W SUPPORTS THE FRONT. FARTHER
E...A NEARLY STATIONARY 999 MB LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN NEAR
29N30W. THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO PRODUCE MULTIPLE SURGES OF
CLOUD BOUNDARIES RESULTING IN SEVERAL LAYERS OF FRONTS AROUND
THE CENTER. THE FIRST IS TIGHTLY KNIT AROUND THE LOW CENTER WITH
AN OCCLUDED FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE CENTER ALONG 29N29W
CONTINUING AS A COLD FRONT ALONG 27N29W 27N33W. A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDS W OF THE LOW TO NEAR 30N34W. THE SECOND BOUNDARY IS MORE
REMOVED FROM THE LOW CENTER AND HAS BEGUN TO DISSIPATE. A DYING
OCCLUDED FRONT EXTENDS ALONG THE N SEMI-CIRCLE ALONG 31N31W TO
30N27W AND CONTINUES AS A DYING COLD FRONT ALONG 26N26W 22N30W
22N38W. THE OUTERMOST...AND ORIGINAL COLD FRONT EXTENDS ALONG
31N24W 24N23W 17N34W WHERE IT BECOMES A SHEAR LINE ALONG 10N53W
AND WWD INTO THE SE CARIBBEAN. MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY IS
ALONG THE OUTERMOST FRONTAL BOUNDARY N OF 23N BETWEEN
20W-26W...AS WELL AS N OF THE ENTIRE SYSTEM OUT OF THE
DISCUSSION AREA. POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARIES ELSEWHERE. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP IN THE NEXT 24 HRS E OF THE LOW CENTER N OF 27N
BETWEEN 38W-45W. THIS SYSTEM IS SUPPORTED BY A NARROW EXTENSION
OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM NOVA
SCOTIA TO NEAR 32N43W WHERE IT CONTINUES EWD ALONG 32N TO JUST N
OF THE CANARY ISLANDS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE.

$$
WALTON






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