[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 280512
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST THU JAN 28 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0430 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED FROM S LIBERIA NEAR 6N9W ALONG 4N20W
4N30W 2N40W TO THE NE BRAZIL COAST NEAR 2S48W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-4N BETWEEN
19W-30W...FROM 4N-5N BETWEEN 29W-33W...AND FROM EQ-3N BETWEEN
44W-49W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
SURFACE RIDGING CONTINUES TO COVER THE GULF OF MEXICO TONIGHT
ANCHORED BY A 1028 MB HIGH OVER NRN ALABAMA. THE RIDGE IS
PROVIDING GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER OVER MUCH OF THE BASIN EXCEPT
FOR THE WRN GULF WHERE LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS LINE THE MEXICO AND
TEXAS COASTLINE ALONG WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS.
ANTI-CYCLONIC SURFACE FLOW OF 10-15 KT IS AROUND THE RIDGE
REACHING 20 KT ACROSS THE WRN GULF. ALOFT...MAINLY WESTERLY FLOW
PREVAILS AROUND THE NRN EXTENT OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALONG 80W
ACCOMPANIED BY DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE. EXPECT THE SURFACE RIDGE
TO SHIFT E AS SLY RETURN FLOW INCREASES ACROSS THE NW GULF AHEAD
OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT FORECAST TO MOVE OFF THE TEXAS COAST
EARLY FRI.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A COLD FRONT DRAPES ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC AND BECOMES
STATIONARY TO CENTRAL CUBA NEAR 22N78W. SURFACE CONVERGENCE NEAR
THE FRONT IS SUPPORTING ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL CUBA. A SHEAR LINE BISECTS THE E AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
EXTENDING FROM A STATIONARY BOUNDARY E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES.
THE SHEAR AXIS CONTINUES FROM NEAR TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO TO THE NW
ALONG 14N70W 17N81W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 150 NM OF THE
VENEZUELA COASTLINE...AND FROM 14N-18N BETWEEN 71W-84W.
ALOFT...DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE BASIN AROUND AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE ALONG 80W. FRESH TO STRONG TRADEWINDS PREVAIL ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA WITH STRONGER WINDS NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA.
GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OFF THE COAST OF
COLOMBIA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HRS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDS FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE SW N
ATLC PROVIDING GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THIS AREA OF THE
BASIN. THE SURFACE RIDGE IS SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
ALONG 80W. A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH ITS WAY ACROSS THE
CENTRAL ATLC ENTERING THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N57W CONTINUING
SW ALONG 27N62W 23N69W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY TO CENTRAL
CUBA NEAR 22N78W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 150 NM
AHEAD OF THE FRONT N OF 26N WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 90 NM
OF THE FRONT S OF 26N. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM NOVA
SCOTIA TO NEAR 27N55W SUPPORTS THE FRONT. FARTHER E...A WEAK
SURFACE RIDGE IS SANDWICHED BETWEEN THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD
FRONT AND A SECOND FRONTAL SYSTEM ACROSS THE ERN ATLC. THE
RIDGE IS ANCHORED BY A 1021 MB HIGH NEAR 26N54W. THE SYSTEM TO
THE E CONSISTS OF A 1000 MB OCCLUDED LOW NEAR 29N37W. AN
OCCLUDED FRONT EXTENDS AROUND THE LOW ALONG THE NRN SEMI-CIRCLE
AND CONTINUES AS A COLD FRONT ALONG 31N30W 25N28W 21N31W 15N40W
BECOMING STATIONARY TO THE SRN LESSER ANTILLES NEAR TRINIDAD AND
TOBAGO WHERE IT CONTINUES AS A SHEAR LINE INTO THE CARIBBEAN.
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT N
OF 24N BETWEEN 21N-28N. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE
FRONT ELSEWHERE. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE NEAR THE LOW CENTER N OF
26N E OF 42W. THIS SYSTEM IS SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
NEAR 30N34W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE.

$$
WALTON



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