[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 261111
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST TUE JAN 26 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1030 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED FROM S LIBERIA NEAR 5N8W ALONG 4N20W
2N30W 2N40W TO THE NE BRAZIL COAST NEAR 1S47W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE
AXIS BETWEEN 13W-27W. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS FROM 3N-5N BETWEEN
28W-41W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
SURFACE RIDGING CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO
THIS MORNING IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT THAT HAS PUSHED INTO
THE SW N ATLC AND THE NW CARIBBEAN. THE RIDGE IS ANCHORED BY A
1020 MB HIGH S OF LOUISIANA NEAR 25N92W PROVIDING EXTREMELY
CLEAR SKIES OVER MUCH OF THE BASIN EXCEPT FOR THE WRN BAY OF
CAMPECHE. ANTI-CYCLONIC SURFACE FLOW OF 10-15 KT IS AROUND THE
RIDGE. ALOFT...MAINLY WESTERLY FLOW PREVAILS AROUND THE BASE OF
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE ERN CONUS ACCOMPANIED BY DRY AIR
AND SUBSIDENCE. EXPECT THE SURFACE RIDGE TO GRADUALLY SHIFT NEWD
AS SLY RETURN FLOW INCREASES ACROSS THE NW GULF AHEAD OF THE
NEXT COLD FRONT FORECAST TO MOVE OFF THE TEXAS COAST LATE THU.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AS OF 0900 UTC...A COLD FRONT DRAPES ACROSS THE SW N ATLC
BECOMING STATIONARY ACROSS CUBA E OF HAVANA NEAR 23N79W
CONTINUING ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN TO NE HONDURAS NEAR 15N84W.
SURFACE CONVERGENCE NEAR THE FRONT IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 120 NM BEHIND THE FRONT
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ALSO COVERING NRN NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS.
THE FRONT IS SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE ERN
CONUS. A DYING STATIONARY FRONT LINES THE NE CARIBBEAN ACROSS
THE CENTRAL LESSER ANTILLES THROUGH THE MARTINIQUE PASSAGE NEAR
15N61W CONTINUING W TO S OF HAITI NEAR 17N73W. ISOLATED SHOWERS
ARE WITHIN 30 NM S OF THE FRONT AND 180 NM N OF THE FRONT
AFFECTING THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND HISPANIOLA.
THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS EXPERIENCING GENERALLY FAIR
WEATHER WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF DRY AND
SUBSIDENCE AIR AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH AXIS ALONG 65W.
FRESH TO STRONG TRADEWINDS ARE ACROSS MUCH OF THE E AND CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN. EXPECT THE FRONT IN THE NW CARIBBEAN TO GRADUALLY
SHIFT E WITH CONTINUED SHOWER ACTIVITY NEAR THE AXIS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE SW N ATLC ENTERING THE
DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N71W CONTINUING SW ACROSS THE CENTRAL
BAHAMAS TO ERN CUBA NEAR 23N79W AND INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN AS A
STATIONARY BOUNDARY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
WITHIN 120 NM AHEAD OF THE FRONT N OF 25N WITH SIMILAR ACTIVITY
WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT S OF 25N. GALE FORCE WINDS
UP TO 35 KT ARE ALSO AHEAD OF THE FRONT N OF 29N. THESE WINDS
ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH BELOW GALE FORCE IN THE NEXT 6 HRS. AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING DOWN THE ERN CONUS SUPPORTS THE
FRONT. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN THE UPPER TROUGH AND AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO THE E ALONG 65W IS FURTHER SUPPORTING THE
SHOWER ACTIVITY ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. FARTHER E...A
SURFACE RIDGE IS SANDWICHED BETWEEN THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD
FRONT...A COLD FRONT TO THE N...AND ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ACROSS THE ERN ATLC. THE RIDGE IS ANCHORED BY A 1027 MB HIGH
NEAR 30N57W AND IS SUPPORTED BY THE UPPER RIDGE ALONG 65W. THE
COLD FRONT TO THE N EXTENDS FROM AN OCCLUDED 1006 MB LOW
ENTERING THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N40W ALONG 29N46W 32N54W.
GALE FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP NEAR THIS FRONT IN THE
NEXT 24 HRS. THE FINAL FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE E CONSISTS OF A A
COLD FRONT ENTERING THE AREA NEAR 32N31W CONTINUING SW TO NEAR
22N37W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY TO 16N53W...AND DYING
STATIONARY INTO THE E CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
ARE WITHIN 200 NM E OF THE AXIS N OF 26N WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS
WITHIN 30 NM AHEAD AND 90 NM BEHIND THE FRONT ELSEWHERE. THIS
FRONT IS SUPPORTED BY A NARROW UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALONG 38W.
THIS UPPER TROUGH MAY ALSO BE ENHANCING CONVECTION ALONG THE
ITCZ.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE.

$$
WALTON




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