[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 252348
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST MON JAN 25 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N12W 6N20W 3N30W 1N40W INTO NE
BRAZIL. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NEAR 6N16N AND WITHIN 80
NM S OF AXIS FROM 26W-35W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS ALSO NOTED
WITHIN 140 NM N OF AXIS BETWEEN 37W-42W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE FAR SE GULF AND WESTERN CUBA. THE FRONT
WILL CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY FROM THE GULF REGION AS THE HIGH PRES
BEHIND IT TAKES CONTROL OF THE AREA. THE SURFACE HIGH...ANALYZED
1017 MB NEAR 28N91W AT 2100 UTC...IS FORECAST TO MOVE TOWARD SE
LOUISIANA IN ABOUT 24 HOURS AND WILL BE OVER THE SE CONUS LATE
WED. SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL INCREASE OVER THE WESTERN GULF
TUE NIGHT THROUGH THU IN ADVANCE OF A STRONGER COLD FRONT
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE NW PORTION OF THE GULF LATE THU. THE
FRONT SHOULD REACH FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO EASTERN BAY OF
CAMPECHE BY LATE ON FRI...AND FROM SW FLORIDA TO NE YUCATAN
PENINSULA BY LATE SAT. STRONG HIGH PRES WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE
FRONT WITH STRONG NW TO N WINDS WITH POSSIBLE GALE FORCE OVER
MUCH OF THE WESTERN GULF BEGINNING LATE THU INTO FRI MORNING.
CURRENTLY...NW TO N WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT ARE NOTED OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE GULF PER SURFACE DATA AND AN EARLIER ASCAT
PASS. WINDS ARE LIGHTER...10 TO 15 KT ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF.
ALOFT...A DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS OVER THE GULF WITH AXIS ALONG 90W
PRODUCING MOSTLY WESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW AND STRONG
SUBSIDENCE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AS OF 2100 UTC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM W CUBA TO N HONDURAS
NEAR 16N86W. AT THAT TIME...RADAR FROM CUBA SHOWED A NARROW BAND
OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT
AFFECTING PARTS OF HAVANA...MATANZAS AND THE ISLE OF YOUTH. THE
FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY AND DISSIPATE FROM NEAR THE
WINDWARD PASSAGE TO NE HONDURAS TUE NIGHT INTO WED AS STRONG
HIGH PRES BUILDS SOUTH INTO THE NW AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA.
FURTHER E...THE TAIL END OF A WEAKENING COLD FRONT ENTERS THE NE
CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE N LEEWARD ISLANDS THEN CONTINUES MAINLY
WNW AFFECTING PARTS OF PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA. GUSTY WINDS
IN THE 20 KT RANGE IS NOTED OVER THE ISLANDS JUST BEHIND THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY KEEPING THE TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE. THIS
FRONT IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY DISSIPATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUE
MORNING. SHALLOW MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN THE TRADE WIND FLOW IS
OBSERVED OVER THE E AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. THE MOST RECENT
WINDSAT PASS SHOWED TRADE WINDS OF 20-30 KT OVER THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA.
THESE FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH AT
LEAST FRI AS HIGH PRES SETTLES N OF AREA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...
A RIDGE WITH AXIS ALONG 70W DOMINATES THE MAJORITY OF THE BASIN
WITH VERY STRONG SUBSIDENCE SUPPRESSING DEEP CONVECTION.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC EXTENDING FROM 31N76W ACROSS
SE FLORIDA AND WESTERN CUBA INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THE FRONT
CROSSED SOUTH FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON WITH A LINE OF SHOWERS AND
A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT N OF
29N AND EAST OF THE FRONT TO 72W WHERE AN EARLIER ASCAT PASS
SHOWED S TO SW WINDS IN THE 25 TO 35 KT RANGE. WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO DIMINISH BELOW GALE FORCE AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN
ABOUT 18 HOURS WHILE W TO NW WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT AND BUILDING
SEAS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WHICH WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE SE ACROSS THE SW N ATLANTIC REACHING A POSITION FROM
FROM NEAR 31N69W TO CENTRAL CUBA BY EARLY TUE. STRONG HIGH PRES
WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT SHIFTING EWD ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLC TUE
THROUGH FRI. ANOTHER COLD FRONT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR
31N32W THEN CONTINUES SW AND W ALONG 20N42W 15N60W STRETCHING
ACROSS THE NE CARIBBEAN. A NEAR 180 NM WIDE BAND OF CLOUDINESS
WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS IS RELATED TO THE FRONT THAT IS FORECAST
TO GRADUALLY DISSIPATE. IN BETWEEN THE ABOVE MENTIONED COLD
FRONTS...THERE IS A 1023 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 32N38W
EXTENDING A RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC AND THE FAR NE
CARIBBEAN. THE EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF ANOTHER
RIDGE. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A HIGH AMPLIFIED RIDGE/TROUGH/RIDGE
PATTERN DOMINATES THE FORECAST REGION. A MAINLY ZONAL FLOW IS
SEEN S OF 15N.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE.

$$
GR








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