[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 241736
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST SUN JAN 24 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N10W 3N20W 2N30W 1N43W 1N48W.
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS  FROM 1N-4N BETWEEN
26W-31W...FROM EQ-1N BETWEEN 35W-38W...AND FROM 4N-6N BETWEEN
35W-40W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 1500 UTC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM S MISSISSIPPI TO THE
BAY OF CAMPECHE ALONG 30N89W 19N96W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 120 NM W OF THE FRONT. 20-25 NW SURFACE WINDS ARE W OF
THE FRONT WHILE A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE E GULF OF
MEXICO IS PRODUCING 20-25 SE WINDS E OF THE FRONT. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...A BROAD RIDGE IS OVER THE GULF WITH AXIS ALONG 80W
PRODUCING SW UPPER LEVEL FLOW. CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE
AND CLOUDINESS IS OVER THE NORTH GULF STATES E OF LOUISIANA.
STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE ENTIRE GULF. EXPECT...THE COLD
FRONT TO EXTEND FROM SOUTH FLORIDA TO WEST CUBA IN 24 HOUR WITH
SHOWERS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A 1006 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER N COLOMBIA NEAR 6N73W. CENTRAL
AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA HAS A LAX SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT PRODUCING MODERATE TO FRESH TRADEWINDS. A COLD FRONT IS
JUST N OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND HISPANIOLA
ALONG 20N60W 19N65W 21N73W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM
OF THE FRONT. SIMILAR SHOWERS ARE ALONG THE COASTS OF PANAMA AND
COSTA RICA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH AXIS
ALONG 80W IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH VERY STRONG SUBSIDENCE
SUPPRESSING DEEP CONVECTION. EXPECT...SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE
NW CARIBBEAN IN 24 HOURS DUE TO THE GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT.
ALSO EXPECT CONTINUED SHOWERS OVER PANAMA AND COSTA RICA.
MOREOVER...EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS DUE TO THE ATLANTIC COLD FRONT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC TO JUST N OF THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS ALONG 32N48W 26N50W 21N55W 20N60W. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS E OF THE FRONT N OF 24N BETWEEN
43W-49W. A PREFRONTAL TROUGH IS ALSO WELL E OF THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS ALONG 22N51W 17N57W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM
OF THE TROUGH. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
WITHIN 300 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT N OF 28N. FURTHER E...A
1033 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 36N19W. A SURFACE RIDGE
AXIS EXTENDS SW FROM THE HIGH CENTER TO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
NEAR 20N40W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE IS OVER THE W
ATLANTIC W OF 60W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS N OF 20N BETWEEN
45W-60W. A RIDGE IS N OF 20N BETWEEN 20W-45W. ZONAL FLOW IS OVER
THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLANTIC FROM EQ-20N. EXPECT...IN 24 HOURS
FOR A COLD FRONT TO EXTEND FROM 32N77W TO SOUTH FLORIDA WITH
CONVECTION. ALSO EXPECT THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC COLD FRONT TO MOVE
E TO 32N33W AND EXTEND SW TO THE LEEWARD ISLANDS IN 24 HOURS
WITH SHOWERS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE.

$$
FORMOSA





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