[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 211726
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST THU JAN 21 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1645 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED FROM THE SRN TIP OF LIBERIA NEAR 4N8W
ALONG 2N21W 4N30W 2N37W TO THE NE COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR EQ50W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-2N BETWEEN 17W-20W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE QUICKLY ACROSS
THE NE GULF WHERE TORNADO WATCHES ARE IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF
THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND S GEORGIA. A SQUALL LINE IS ANALYZED
ALONG THE STRONGEST LINE OF STORMS EXTENDING FROM S OF VALDOSTA
GEORGIA TO S OF TALLAHASSEE FLORIDA CONTINUING SW INTO THE GULF
OF MEXICO S OF PANAMA CITY NEAR 30N86W. NUMEROUS
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS COVER MUCH OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE INTO
GEORGIA E OF 86W N OF 29N. THIS AREA OF STRONG ACTIVITY GETS IS
SUPPORT FROM SURFACE CONVERGENCE ALONG A WARM FRONT EXTENDING
ALONG THE N FLORIDA STATE BORDER ACROSS CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI TO
AN OCCLUDED 996 MB LOW IN N ARKANSAS. S TO SW WINDS UP TO 25 KT
WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH THE FRONT N. SIGNIFICANT MID-UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AROUND THE E SIDE OF A
SHORTWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL MISSOURI TO
THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PANHANDLE PROVIDING FURTHER SUPPORT TO THE
SURFACE SYSTEM WITH DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT. ACROSS THE WRN
GULF...A COLD FRONT HAS EMERGED OFF THE TEXAS COAST EXTENDING
FROM THE SAME OCCLUDED LOW IN N ARKANSAS ENTERING THE GULF OF
MEXICO NEAR LAKE CHARLES LOUISIANA CONTINUING SW TO S OF CORPUS
CRISTI TEXAS. DENSE FOG IS EVIDENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY LINING
THE COASTLINE ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT. THE FOG IS EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...BUT REFORM AGAIN TONIGHT.
A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IS E OF THE FRONT FROM SE LOUISIANA TO NEAR
26N96W OFF THE COAST OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS. BESIDES THE AREA OF
ACTIVITY IN THE NE GULF...THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS
EXPERIENCING GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER UNDER MOSTLY DRY AIR AND
SUBSIDENCE ALOFT.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN IS EXPERIENCING GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER
TODAY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT
DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING
FROM HAITI TO NICARAGUA. THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH SUPPORTS A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IN THE W ATLC CONTINUING TO N DOMINICAN REPUBLIC NEAR
20N71W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS AHEAD OF THE FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS
THE VIRGIN ISLANDS ALONG 20N61W 19N65W 16N66W. SURFACE
CONVERGENCE NEAR THE TROUGH IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS
ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES N OF 16N...AND WITHIN 90 NM OF THE
TROUGH AXIS N OF 19N. FRESH TO STRONG TRADEWINDS CONTINUE ACROSS
MUCH OF THE BASIN WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS OFF THE COAST OF
COLOMBIA WHERE THEY REACH GALE FORCE UP TO 35 KT FROM 11N-15N
BETWEEN 70W-77W. THE GALE FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTEND ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE
INTO THE SW N ATLC N OF 29N W OF 78W DUE TO SURFACE CONVERGENCE
NEAR A WARM FRONT LINING THE N FLORIDA STATE BORDER TO 29N77W. A
WEAK SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS S OF THE FRONT FROM A 1021 MB HIGH
NEAR 28N58W ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA
PROVIDING GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THIS AREA. FARTHER E...A
COLD FRONT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N32W CONTINUING SW
TO NEAR 25N47W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY ALONG 23N59W TO N
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC NEAR 20N71W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60
NM BEHIND THE FRONT AND 30 NM AHEAD OF THE FRONT N OF 25N WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE FRONT EXCEPT FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS FROM 24N-25N BETWEEN 53W-60W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS
AHEAD OF THE SRN EXTENT OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLANDS
SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS S OF 21N BETWEEN 60W-65W. THIS
FRONTAL SYSTEM IS SUPPORTED BY A WEAK AND BROAD SHORTWAVE UPPER
TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE AZORES ISLANDS TO NEAR 30N40W. THE
REMAINDER OF THE E ATLC IS EXPERIENCING GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER.
HOWEVER...A NARROW UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH AXIS FROM THE CANARY
ISLANDS TO SW OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS SUPPORTING SOME HIGH
CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE.

$$
WALTON





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