[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 210549
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST THU JAN 21 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0515 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
FROM THE LIBERIA COAST FROM 6N TO 7N ALONG 11W...TO 3N20W
2N30W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR ALONG 38W...INTO NORTHEASTERN
BRAZIL NEAR 3S45W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE TO THE SOUTH
OF 6N TO THE EAST OF 37W. HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 20N
BETWEEN AFRICA AND 34W ARE MOVING NORTHWARD.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW MOVES ACROSS INTERIOR MEXICO
INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. SOME OF THIS FLOW MOVES AWAY FROM
A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS MOVING FROM THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA. HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE IS BEING
PUSHED INTO AN AREA THAT EARLIER WAS COVERED BY DRY AIR IN
SUBSIDENCE. SOUTHERLY SURFACE WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA.
COLD CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES AND SHOWERS/POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS
WERE BARELY IN THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS TO THE SOUTH OF FLORIDA
AND ALABAMA AND IN DEEP SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI FIVE HOURS AGO.
THAT SAME CLOUDINESS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION COVER MUCH OF
THE SAME LOCATIONS NOW. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW
MOVES FROM THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ACROSS CUBA AND ACROSS
THE PART OF THE BAHAMAS THAT IS TO THE SOUTH OF 24N. THIS FLOW
ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...COMBINED WITH THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...GIVES THE IMPRESSION THAT THE BASE OF
A TROUGH IS ON TOP OF THE BAHAMAS WHEN IN ACTUALITY THAT
PROBABLY IS NOT THE CASE.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...FROM THE GULF OF HONDURAS
ACROSS CUBA AND THE BAHAMAS INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN.
A MIDDLE LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 23N33W
TO 18N56W INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA. A SURFACE TROUGH
CONTINUES FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
TO 15N78W TO COASTAL PANAMA ALONG 79W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS
FROM 21N61W TO 18N62W TO 16N63W. EARLIER SHOWERS WERE FROM 17N
TO 20N BETWEEN 59W AND 63W. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION IN THIS
AREA HAS ENDED...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME PRECIPITATION MAY BE
CONTINUING. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA
FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 77W...INCLUDING SEA HEIGHTS FROM
8 FT TO 14 FT. THIS CONDITION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE ONLY FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MIDDLE LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 26N25W
TO 23N33W TO 18N56W INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA. THE BROAD
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
WEST OF 30W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/SHEAR AXIS IS ALONG 26N17W
21N27W...AND A TROUGH CONTINUES FROM 21N27W TO 16N32W TO 5N36W.
BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM 5N TO 20N
BETWEEN 30W AND 60W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 35N28W
TO 32N33W. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS THE COLD FRONT THAT PASSES
THROUGH 32N36W TO 25N53W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM
25N53W TO 24N60W TO 20N69W. PRECIPITATION IS NOT APPARENT WITH
THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS AROUND
A RIDGE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N17W TO 28N27W TO 24N38W
TO A 1021 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 23N48W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE.

$$
MT


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