[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 182353
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST MON JAN 18 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N03W 4N20W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR
43W THEN TO 1N50W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-7N
BETWEEN 14W-20W...AND ALSO FROM 1N-4N BETWEEN 25W-34W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE SE CONUS TO OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO AND MOST OF EASTERN MEXICO ANCHORED BY A 1022 MB HIGH
CENTERED IN THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF NEAR 29N89W. GENERALLY LIGHT
ANTICYCLONIC SURFACE FLOW ENVELOPS THE GULF WITH S-SE WINDS
REACHING 15 KT ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN GULF. AS THAT SELY SURFACE
FLOW INTERACTS WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS
EASTERN TEXAS AND NE MEXICO...A FEW POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS
ARE FROM 20N-25N BETWEEN 90W-96W. OTHERWISE...MAINLY SWLY FLOW
ALOFT DOMINATES WITH A SWATH OF MOISTURE NOTED ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY FROM THE BAY OF CAMPECHE TO THE NORTHERN FLORIDA
PENINSULA. THE SURFACE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO SLIDE EASTWARD
THROUGH MIDWEEK ALLOWING INCREASE SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
WESTERN GULF AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT FORECAST TO MOVE OFF
THE TEXAS COAST THU.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY ENTERS THE CARIBBEAN
FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA AND EXTENDS SW ALONG 20N84W
TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS NEAR 16N87W. THE FRONT CONTINUES TO LACK
MUCH IN THE WAY OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND THEREFORE ONLY A FEW
POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE SOUTH OF WESTERN CUBA FROM 21N-23N
BETWEEN 81W-84W. ELSEWHERE...THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS
EXPERIENCING GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF DRY
AIR AND SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERING
THE BASIN WITH AXIS ALONG 70W. FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY TRADES
ARE ACROSS MUCH OF THE BASIN WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS OFF THE
COAST OF COLOMBIA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE W ATLC FROM A 986 MB LOW
POSITIONED OFF THE NE U.S. COAST AND ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA
NEAR 32N65W CONTINUING SW ALONG 28N70W TO THE SE BAHAMAS NEAR
24N75W WHERE IT BECOMES A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT OVER CUBA
AND INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN. MOST OF THE ACTIVE WEATHER ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS N OF 32N...HOWEVER...ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE NOTED E OF THE FRONT COVERING THE AREA FROM 25N-32N
BETWEEN 61W-68W. THIS FRONT IS SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 41N65W TO 32N77W. THE CENTRAL
ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY
A 1024 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 28N42W THAT IS PROVIDING GENERALLY
FAIR WEATHER N OF 20N BETWEEN 30W-58W. FARTHER E...A SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE WESTERN CANARY ISLANDS NEAR 29N18W SW
ALONG 20N30W TO 15N45W. POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 200
NM NORTH OF THE SURFACE TROUGH BETWEEN 34W-45W. THIS SURFACE
FEATURE IS SUPPORTED ALOFT BY UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING ACROSS THE
EASTERN ATLC WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 20N30W TO BEYOND 32N22W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE.

$$
HUFFMAN




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