[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 161720
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST SAT JAN 16 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1645 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED FROM 5N3W NEAR THE SRN IVORY COAST OF
AFRICA ALONG 3N23W TO NE BRAZIL NEAR 2N53W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-4N BETWEEN 26W-32W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE AND ACTIVE WEATHER CONTINUES TO COVER THE
MAJORITY OF THE GULF OF MEXICO TODAY. AS OF 1500 UTC...A 1009 MB
LOW IS LOCATED IN THE N CENTRAL GULF S OF MOBILE ALABAMA NEAR
28N87W. A WARM FRONT EXTENDS EWD FROM THE LOW CENTER ALONG 28N
TO NEAR TAMPA FLORIDA CONTINUING INTO THE W ATLC. A COLD FRONT
EXTENDS SWD FROM THE LOW CENTER TO THE CENTRAL YUCATAN PENINSULA
ALONG 24N88W 19N91W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS WWD FROM THE LOW
ALONG 28N TO S OF HOUSTON TEXAS. RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE NW GULF N OF THE SURFACE TROUGH
BETWEEN 92W-95W AFFECTING SW LOUISIANA AND SE TEXAS. ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE WITHIN 180 NM S OF THE TROUGH.
NUMEROUS SHOWERS ARE NOTED E OF FAR SE LOUISIANA AND ACROSS THE
NE GULF N OF 26N. NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIMITED TO AN AREA
BETWEEN THE COLD AND WARM FRONT FROM 25N-28N BETWEEN 84W-87W AS
INDICATED BY RECENT LIGHTNING DATA. HOWEVER...ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE. E TO SE GALE FORCE
WINDS UP TO  40 KT ARE NOTED IN THE NE GULF N OF 27N BETWEEN
85W-90W. THIS ENTIRE SYSTEM IS SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH CENTERED OVER N TEXAS/W OKLAHOMA WITH AXIS EXTENDING DOWN
98W. A LARGE AREA OF DIFFLUENT FLOW TO THE E OF THIS UPPER
TROUGH IS PROVIDING FURTHER SUPPORT TO THE SURFACE SYSTEM...AND
CONTINUES TO DRAW MOISTURE ACROSS THE GULF. EXPECT THE SURFACE
LOW TO MOVE TO THE NE OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS BRINGING WITH IT
CONTINUED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS THE NE CARIBBEAN N OF 17N
NEAR A STATIONARY BOUNDARY EXTENDING N OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
ACROSS THE MONA PASSAGE TO JUST S OF HISPANIOLA. POSSIBLE
LOCALIZED FLOODING REMAINS A THREAT ACROSS THE NE CARIBBEAN
ISLANDS. ELSEWHERE...MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND FAIR WEATHER PREVAIL
DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE COVERING THE BASIN WITH AXIS ALONG 72W. THE STRONG
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE ACROSS NRN COLOMBIA AND
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE W ATLC IS SUPPORTING GALE FORCE WINDS
UP TO 35 KT IN THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 10N-16N BETWEEN 74W-77W.
STRONG ELY TRADEWINDS ARE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE E
CARIBBEAN. EXPECT CONTINUED SHOWERS ACROSS THE NE CARIBBEAN WITH
INCREASING SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN AS LOW
PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO BRINGS MOISTURE EWD. ALSO EXPECT
GALE FORCE WINDS TO DIMINISH WITHIN 24 HRS AS THE RIDGE ACROSS
THE W ATLC MOVES E WEAKENING THE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO BEGINS TO MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE
SW N ATLC N OF A WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM NEAR DAYTONA BEACH
FLORIDA TO 29N76W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE N OF 28N W OF
78W. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HRS N OF 29N W OF 77W AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE GULF
MOVES NE. THE REMAINDER OF THE W AND CENTRAL ATLC IS
EXPERIENCING GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
BROAD SURFACE RIDGE SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING
FROM THE CARIBBEAN ALONG 74W. THE SURFACE RIDGE IS ANCHORED BY A
1027 MB HIGH NEAR 31N51W. FARTHER E...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM
A 1010 MB LOW NEAR 33N28W ALONG 25N35W 19N45W BECOMING
STATIONARY ALONG 18N55W TO N OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND ACROSS
THE MONA PASSAGE INTO THE NRN CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT. THE FRONTAL SYSTEM IS SUPPORTED BY AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE AZORES ISLANDS TO W OF THE
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS TO NEAR 4N38W. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALSO
SUPPORTING A SMALL AREA OF CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE.

$$
WALTON



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