[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 150547
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST FRI JAN 15 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0515 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N12W 2N29W CROSSING THE EQUATOR
NEAR 46W THEN TO 1S50W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
2N-5N BETWEEN 19W-35W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS COVER THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO WITH A
SURFACE RIDGE POSITIONED OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND W ATLC
AND AN AREA OF DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE MEXICAN
PLATEAU. ALOFT...AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS LOCATED
ACROSS NE MEXICO AND CONTINUES TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
TSTMS ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF N OF 22N W OF 93W. AS THIS UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH ROTATES EAST-NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...A
COMPLEX SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE NW WATERS
AND MOVE ENE ALONG THE GULF COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM THE LOW THROUGH TO THE
SOUTHERN GULF WATERS PROVIDING FOR STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS W OF
THE FRONT SATURDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE TAIL END OF A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS OVER PUERTO RICO FROM
THE W ATLC AND IS PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS N OF
17N BETWEEN 63W-70W. STRONG EASTERLY TRADES CONTINUE S OF 17N
ACROSS THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN CONVERGING IN THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND PRODUCING ISOLATED SHOWERS NW OF A LINE
FROM 17N70W TO 11N84W. ALOFT...A BROAD ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION
ENCOMPASSES THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN BASIN ANCHORED ON AN UPPER HIGH
CENTERED NEAR 14N68W. THIS OVERALL UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IS
PROVIDING STRONG SUBSIDENCE E OF 80W WITH ONLY A FEW AREAS OF
ISOLATED LOW-LEVEL SHOWERS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE EASTERLY TRADES
FROM 13N-15N BETWEEN 64W-70W.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1027 MB HIGH CENTERED OFF THE
NORTH CAROLINA COAST NEAR 34N75W DOMINATES THE W ATLC WATERS AND
IS PROVIDING GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER N OF 22N W OF 60W. A COLD
FRONT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA IN THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 32N35W
AND EXTENDS SW ALONG 26N45W TO 20N60W WHERE IT CONTINUES AS A
STATIONARY FRONT TO OVER PUERTO RICO AND INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN SEA. THIS FRONT IS SUPPORTED ALOFT BY AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS THAT DIPS TO 25N BETWEEN 40W-60W. SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE OCCURRING ALONG AND WITHIN 200 NM NW OF THE BOUNDARY. ALSO
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 200 NM E OF THE COLD FRONT N OF
25N. THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
A SURFACE RIDGE THAT EXTENDS SW FROM A 1026 MB HIGH CENTERED
OVER NORTHERN MOROCCO NEAR 33N05W. THE RIDGE AXIS STRETCHES SW
FROM THE HIGH CENTER ACROSS THE CANARY ISLANDS TO NEAR 19N50W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE.

$$
HUFFMAN



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