[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 082354
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST FRI JAN 08 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2345 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM WEST AFRICA NEAR THE NORTHERN
COAST OF LIBERIA NEAR 6N11W CONTINUING WESTWARD ALONG 4N20W
3N30W 1N40W TO NORTHEAST BRAZIL NEAR 1S46W. WEAK TO MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FOUND 120 NM SOUTH OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 10W AND
13W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS ALSO FOUND ALONG THE ITCZ BETWEEN 20W
AND 25W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A COLD FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH MOST OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO...LEAVING NORTHERLY GALE FORCE WINDS BEHIND IT. THE COLD
FRONT IS CURRENTLY PASSING THE SOUTHERN REGION OF OF THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA...AND CONTINUES TO EXPAND EASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC AND NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN. SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ORIGINATING FROM THE EAST
TROPICAL PACIFIC AND MOVING ACROSS THE MEXICO BASIN...PROVIDING
SUFFICIENT PRECIPITABLE WATER TO THIS SYSTEM. DOPPLER RADAR DATA
INDICATES SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE WEST-SOUTHWEST AND
CENTRAL BASIN...AND ALSO 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA. A STRONGER LINE OF
SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS EMBEDDED WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE FLORIDA KEYS OVER THE NEXT TWO TO FOUR HOURS. UNSETTLED
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION...WITH NORTHERLY WINDS
25 KT TO GALE FORCE EXPECTED TO LAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO BUILD OVER THE NORTHWEST BASIN OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...DRY AND SUBSIDENT AIR
ALOFT IS SUPPRESSING DEEP CONVECTION FROM HAPPENING SOUTH OF
15N. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE WEATHER NORTH OF 15N IS DOMINATED
BY A TROUGH OVER THE NORTHWEST BASIN...A SHEAR LINE OVER THE
NORTH CENTRAL BASIN...AND A STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE NORTHEAST
BASIN. THE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM WESTERN CUBA ALONG 22N81W
20N82W 18N83W TO EASTERN HONDURAS NEAR 15N83W. WEAK CONVERGENCE
IS SEEN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH. THE SHEAR LINE IS
ANALYZED FROM SOUTH OF HAITI NEAR 17N72W CONTINUING
WEST-SOUTHWEST ALONG 17N75W 17N77W 16N80W 14N81W TO WEST OF
NICARAGUA NEAR 12N82W. WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE IS FOUND WITHIN
90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE SHEAR LINE. THE STATIONARY FRONT
ENTERS THE US/UK VIRGIN ISLANDS ALONG 18N65W 17N66W TO SOUTHWEST
OF PUERTO RICO NEAR 17N67W. DOPPLER RADAR IMAGERY DISPLAYS A
LINE OF WEAK SHOWERS MOVING WESTWARD FROM NORTH OF PUERTO RICO
THROUGH THE MONA PASSAGE TO SOUTHEAST DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS...A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE NORTHWEST
CARIBBEAN WITH CONVECTION AND NORTHERLY WINDS 20 TO 30 KT BEHIND
IT. ELSEWHERE...FAIR WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REMAINDER
OF THE AREA WITH GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC NEAR 32N76W AND EXTENDS TO NEAR VERO BEACH FLORIDA.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. THE
REMAINDER OF THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS ARE UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF A SURFACE 1021 MB HIGH NEAR 28N60W. OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC...A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N37W
AND EXTENDS SOUTHWEST ALONG 25N44W 23N50W 22N54W...BECOMING
STATIONARY FROM THIS POINT AND CONTINUING INTO THE US/UK VIRGIN
ISLANDS. INFRA-RED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS WEAK CONVECTION
WITHIN 150 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. MODERATE
CONVECTION INDICATING POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IS FOUND
TO THE EAST OF THE FRONT NORTH OF 26N. WEAK SHOWERS ARE FOUND
WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE STATIONARY FRONT. OVER THE
EASTERN ATLANTIC...A WEAKENING SURFACE 1021 MB HIGH PRESSURE IS
ANALYZED NEAR 26N30W...BRINGING GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN ATLANTIC. OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS...BOTH COLD FRONTS WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND
EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH CONVECTION WITHIN AND AHEAD
OF IT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE.

$$

GARCIA


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