[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 071747
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST THU JAN 07 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON THE 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N10W 3N30W CROSSING THE EQUATOR
NEAR 43W AND INTO NE BRAZIL NEAR 2S48W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-7N BETWEEN 22W-38W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 2N BETWEEN 46W-50W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 1500 UTC...A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE NW GULF NEAR CAMERON
LOUISIANA AND EXTENDS SW ALONG 27N96W TO BROWNSVILLE TEXAS AND
THEN INLAND OVER NORTHERN MEXICO. MOSAIC DOPPLER RADAR INDICATES
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED TSTMS ARE WITHIN 90 NM
EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE
TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM THE COLD FRONT NEAR BROWNSVILLE ALONG
THE MEXICO GULF COAST TO NEAR TUXPAN. STRONG SE TO S SURFACE
WINDS UP TO 20 KT ARE ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF W OF 90W. NW OF
THE FRONT...GALE FORCE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN 24 HOURS
AS A STRONG SURFACE RIDGE...CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS BUILDS IN ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN GULF THROUGH
SATURDAY. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF E OF 90W CONTINUES TO BE
IMPACTED BY A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED ON A 1025 MB HIGH CENTERED
OVER THE BIG BEND REGION OF FLORIDA NEAR 29N83W. AS THE COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...THIS RIDGE IS FORECAST TO
WEAKEN SLIGHTLY AND GRADUALLY SLIDE EASTWARD INTO THE W ATLC BY
EARLY FRIDAY. ALOFT...MOSTLY ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW DOMINATES
ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO PROVIDING A FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE
ENVIRONMENT FOR THE COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE GULF BASIN.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION DOMINATES THE ENTIRE
CARIBBEAN SEA AND IS PROVIDING A RELATIVELY SUBSIDENT
ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE ENTIRE BASIN IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVELS. THIS UPPER HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 11N75W AND EXTENDS
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TO 20N AND EASTWARD INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC
TO 40W. HOWEVER...AT THE SURFACE AND LOWER LEVELS...A SHALLOW
STATIONARY FRONT ENTERS THE BASIN ACROSS FAR EASTERN PUERTO RICO
NEAR 18N66W AND EXTENDS TO 16N71W. IT CONTINUES AS A SHEAR LINE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN ALONG 16N75W TO THE
COAST OF COSTA RICA NEAR 10N83W AND INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE
STATIONARY FRONT...INCLUDING PUERTO RICO...THE US/UK VIRGIN
ISLANDS...AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALSO
FOUND WITHIN 90 NM NORTH OF THE SHEAR LINE...WITH OTHER ISOLATED
SHOWER ACTIVITY OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF THE NW CARIBBEAN AND
CENTRAL AMERICA...MOST NOTABLY IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS AND
NEARBY BELIZE.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH REMAINS NORTH OF THE W ATLC DISCUSSION
AREA WITH WESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW LOCATED MAINLY W OF 60W.
THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE
CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 32N46W AND EXTENDS SW TO 22N63W THEN CONTINUES
AS A STATIONARY FRONT INTO A 1016 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 20N64W.
THIS STATIONARY BOUNDARY THEN EXTENDS SW ACROSS EASTERN PUERTO
RICO AND INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
OCCURRING WITHIN 200 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT WITH POSSIBLE
ISOLATED TSTMS REMAINING N OF 28N AND EAST OF THE COLD FRONT. AS
THIS FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST...A WEAK SURFACE
RIDGE...CURRENTLY ANCHORED BY A 1025 MB HIGH CENTERED OVER
NORTHERN FLORIDA...IS FORECAST TO BUILD INTO THE W ATLC WATERS
THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. FARTHER EAST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
TROPICAL AND EASTERN ATLC...A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES ANCHORED
BY A 1023 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 27N34W BRINGING GENERALLY FAIR
WEATHER SE OF A LINE FROM 32N37W TO THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE.

$$
HUFFMAN





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