[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 051753
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST TUE JAN 05 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N13W 3N27W 2N42W THEN TO THE
EQUATOR NEAR 51W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-7N
BETWEEN 18W-21W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN EXPANSIVE SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO ANCHORED BY
A 1034 MB HIGH OVER EASTERN OKLAHOMA PROVIDING THE GULF WITH
NORTHERLY WINDS UP TO 20 KT THAT ARE FORECAST TO GRADUALLY
DIMINISH THROUGH WED. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDS
ALONG THE EASTERN U.S. SEABOARD ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA INTO THE
FAR NE GULF WITH ANOTHER SURGE OF COOLER AND DRIER AIR FILTERING
INTO THE EASTERN GULF...FLORIDA PENINSULA...AND W ATLC THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF TUESDAY. UPPER LEVEL ZONAL FLOW IS FOUND ACROSS
THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF BETWEEN THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING
ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS AND AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA. MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM ACROSS CENTRAL MEXICO
AND THE SOUTHERN GULF S OF 25N WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE SW GULF S OF 22N W OF 90W.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A SURFACE TROUGH CROSSES HISPANIOLA FROM THE W ATLC AND ENTERS
THE CARIBBEAN AS A SHEAR LINE FROM SW HAITI NEAR 18N74W TO
15N80W TO 10N83W. N TO NE WINDS NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY AND
EASTERLY TRADES ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ARE CONVERGING TO
PRODUCE ISOLATED SHOWERS PRIMARILY NW OF A LINE FROM SW HAITI TO
THE COAST OS COSTA RICA. THIS ACTIVITY IS LOCATED ON THE
NORTHERN SIDE OF BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTERED OVER WESTERN PANAMA NEAR 8N82W THAT COVERS THE ENTIRE
CARIBBEAN BASIN. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR IS NOTED
ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY MAINLY S OF 16N WITH CLEAR SKIES OBSERVED
E OF THE SHEAR LINE.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLC INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC
AND SUPPORTS A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM NEAR 31N49W SW
ALONG 25N63W TO THE COAST OF HISPANIOLA NEAR 20N70W. LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE NEAR THE SURFACE TROUGH IS GENERATING SCATTERED
SHOWERS WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY. BEHIND THIS
WEAKENING BOUNDARY...A COLD FRONT IS DRAPED FROM 31N63W TO
25N74W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS LOCATED WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE
OF THE FRONT. WEST WINDS TO GALE FORCE ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE
FRONT BY LATE TONIGHT. THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR THIS
FRONT IS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITH AXIS OVER THE FAR
W ATLC FROM 32N72W TO 27N80W. ELSEWHERE...A SURFACE RIDGE
DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1027 MB HIGH
CENTERED NEAR 27N34W GIVING A MAJORITY OF THE EASTERN ATLC FAIR
WEATHER. THIS SURFACE HIGH IS SUPPORTED ALOFT BY AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS THAT EXTENDS FROM THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR
PUERTO RICO ALONG 21N50W TO BEYOND 32N36W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE.

$$
HUFFMAN



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