[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 031747
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST SUN JAN 03 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1615 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N4W 4N18W 3N34W 2N44W EQ51W.
ISOLATED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-5N BETWEEN
4W-6W...AND FROM 3N-6N BETWEEN 16W-20W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ALONG WITH A COLD AIR MASS CONTINUES TO
DOMINATE THE MAJORITY OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. LOWS LAST NIGHT IN
THE 40S DIPPED AS FAR S AS HAVANA CUBA...WITH COLDER LOWS
FARTHER N. N TO NE WINDS ARE ACROSS MUCH OF THE ERN GULF
REACHING 15 KT. RED FLAG WARNINGS REMAIN ACROSS PORTIONS OF
FLORIDA AND ALABAMA ALONG WITH FREEZE WARNINGS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF FLORIDA...S GEORGIA... S ALABAMA...AND SE LOUISIANA. IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...PACIFIC MOISTURE IS BEING DRAWN TO THE NE ACROSS
THE GULF OF MEXICO SUPPORTING OVERCAST SKIES AND POSSIBLE
ISOLATED SHOWERS. EXPECT HIGH PRESSURE AND COOL TEMPERATURES TO
REMAIN ACROSS THE BASIN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH SLY
RETURN FLOW INCREASING LATE WED AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT
FORECAST TO REACH THE NW GULF WATERS THU.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A COLD FRONT DRAPES ACROSS THE W/CENTRAL ATLC TO NRN HISPANIOLA
TO S OF ERN CUBA BECOMING STATIONARY ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN TO
THE NRN COAST OF HONDURAS NEAR 16N84W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE S
OF 17N W OF 84 INCLUDING MUCH OF HONDURAS...AS WELL AS OVER
HISPANIOLA N OF 17N BETWEEN 67W-74W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE ALONG THE REMAINDER OF THE FRONT AXIS. THE REMAINDER OF
THE BASIN IS EXPERIENCING GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER COLOMBIA
WHICH IS PROVIDING DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT ACROSS THE
MAJORITY OF THE AREA BESIDES THE NW GULF ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. MODERATE TO FRESH ELY TRADEWINDS ARE ACROSS THE E AND
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SHIFTING TO NE WINDS NW OF THE FRONT. EXPECT
ANOTHER SURGE OF COLD AIR TO REINFORCE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LATE
TONIGHT AND MON PUSHING THE FRONT SLIGHTLY SE.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE W AND CENTRAL ATLC FROM AN
OCCLUDED 977 MB LOW S OF NEWFOUNDLAND ENTERING THE DISCUSSION
AREA NEAR 32N51W CONTINUING SW ALONG 23N61W TO NRN HISPANIOLA
NEAR 20N70W TO S OF ERN CUBA WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY ACROSS
THE NW CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
WITHIN 300 NM E OF THE FRONT N OF 25N...WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS
WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT ELSEWHERE. THE TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT IS SUPPORTING NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS N OF 29 N
W OF THE FRONT TO 75W. A DEEP LAYER TROUGH CENTERED OFF THE NE
UNITED STATES COAST SUPPORTS THE FRONT. FARTHER E...A 1022 MB
HIGH IS LOCATED NEAR 26N35W SANDWICHED BETWEEN THE COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE W ATLC AND A SECOND FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE E
ATLC. THE SECOND COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS PORTUGAL TO THE
CANARY ISLANDS CONTINUING SW TO NEAR 16N46W. NO SHOWER ACTIVITY
IS CURRENTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE PORTION OF THE FRONT IN THE
DISCUSSION AREA. THIS FRONT IS SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE CANARY ISLANDS TO E OF THE
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE.

$$
WALTON





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