[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 022323
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST SAT JAN 02 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2215 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N7W 6N18W 5N29W 5N44W 2N54W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-4N BETWEEN 13W-15W...AND
FROM 3N-5N BETWEEN 24W-26W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ALONG WITH A COLD...DRY AIR MASS CONTINUES
TO DOMINATE THE GULF OF MEXICO IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT WHICH
PASSED THROUGH THE ERN GULF LAST NIGHT. N TO NE WINDS ARE ACROSS
MUCH OF THE GULF REACHING 20 KT ACROSS THE ERN GULF. A LARGE
AREA OF STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS COVER THE MAJORITY OF THE BASIN
EXCEPT FOR CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE NE GULF INCLUDING FLORIDA AND
THE ERN GULF STATES. DEW POINTS REMAIN IN THE 20S AND 30S ACROSS
MUCH OF THE ERN GULF ALONG WITH RED FLAG WARNINGS ACROSS S
FLORIDA AND FREEZE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
FLORIDA...S GEORGIA...ALABAMA...AND SE LOUISIANA. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE BASIN WITH SOME
MOISTURE BEING DRAWN OVER THE WRN GULF SUPPORTING A FEW HIGH
CLOUDS OVER THE SW GULF. EXPECT HIGH PRESSURE TO REMAIN ACROSS
THE BASIN THROUGH MONDAY WITH CONTINUED COOL TEMPERATURES.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A COLD FRONT DRAPES ACROSS THE W ATLC OVER TURKS AND CAICOS TO
ERN CUBA BECOMING STATIONARY ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN TO THE NRN
COAST OF HONDURAS NEAR 16N87W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN 90 NM NW OF THE FRONT...AND 30 NM SE OF THE FRONT. A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALSO NOTED ACROSS HISPANIOLA. A SURFACE
TROUGH...REMNANTS OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY...EXTENDS ACROSS THE
LESSER ANTILLES FROM NEAR SAINT LUCIA WWD TO 14N65W. POSSIBLE
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 75 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS. THE
REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS EXPERIENCING GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER
COLOMBIA WHICH IS PROVIDING DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT ACROSS
THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA BESIDES THE NW GULF ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. FRESH ELY TRADEWINDS ARE ACROSS THE E AND CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN WITH FRESH NE WINDS NW OF THE FRONT. EXPECT LITTLE
CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE W ATLC FROM A 969 MB LOW OFF THE
NE UNITED STATES COAST ENTERING THE DISCUSSION AREA E OF BERMUDA
NEAR 32N59W CONTINUING SW ALONG 27N63W TO TURKS AND CAICOS NEAR
22N72W TO ERN CUBA WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY ACROSS THE NW
CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN
250 NM E OF THE FRONT N OF 23N...WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 30
NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT ELSEWHERE. THE TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT IS SUPPORTING GALE FORCE WINDS N OF 30 N E OF THE
FRONT. A DEEP LAYER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE NE COAST TO THE
BAHAMAS SUPPORTS THE FRONT. FARTHER E...A 1018 MB HIGH IS
LOCATED NEAR 23N44W SANDWICHED BETWEEN THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
W ATLC AND A SECOND FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE E ATLC. THE
SECOND COLD FRONT EXTENDS W OF PORTUGAL ENTERING THE DISCUSSION
AREA W OF THE MADEIRA ISLANDS NEAR 32N19W CONTINUING SW TO NEAR
23N30W BECOMING STATIONARY TO E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES NEAR
15N57W WHERE A SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES INTO THE ERN CARIBBEAN.
SCATTERED SHOWERS/POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 90 NM EITHER
SIDE OF THE FRONT N OF 25N WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE WITHIN
60 NM OF THE FRONT ELSEWHERE. THIS FRONT IS SUPPORTED BY AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH AXIS ALONG 34W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE.

$$
WALTON






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