[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 021123
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST SAT JAN 02 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON THE 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1130 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED FROM WESTERN AFRICA OFF THE COAST OF
SIERRA LEONE ALONG 10N20W 5N30W 3N40W TO NORTHEAST BRAZIL NEAR
ILHA DE MARAJO AT EQ50W. SCATTERED WEAK CONVECTION IS OCCURRING
WITHING 60 NM ALONG THE SIERRA LEONE COAST. ANOTHER AREA OF
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FOUND 120 NM NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE ITCZ
BETWEEN 20W AND 28W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FOUND FROM 2S TO THE
EQUATOR BETWEEN 39W AND 42W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A COLD AIRMASS IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE BASIN...AS HIGH PRESSURE
TAKES OVER THE REGION. WINDS CONTINUE TO BLOW FROM THE NORTH AT
15 TO 20 KTS. SUBSIDENCE OF AIR OVER THE NORTHEAST BASIN IS
NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE...ONLY LIGHT WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW IS SEEN ALOFT.
SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE IS BEEN TRANSPORTED FROM THE EASTERN
TROPICAL PACIFIC TO THE WESTERN GULF. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
ON THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN SEA...A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE
DISCUSSION AREA...FROM EASTERN CUBA...CROSSING THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS...TO EAST OF BELIZE. THIS FRONT IS BRINGING WEAK TO
MODERATE CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHWEST BASIN. NORTH WINDS 15 TO
20 KTS ARE NOTED BEHIND THE FRONT. ON THE EAST CARIBBEAN
SEA...THE TAIL END OF A FRONTAL TROUGH CROSSES THE LESSER
ANTILLES AND EXTENDS NORTHWEST TO HISPANIOLA ALONG 14N61W 16N66W
18N70W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED WEAK TO
MODERATE SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE TROUGH. EAST WINDS 10
TO 15 KTS ARE NOTED ACROSS THE EAST AND CENTRAL BASIN. DOPPLER
RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS THESE SHOWERS 90 NM SOUTH OF PONCE PUERTO
RICO. IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE
IS BRINGING SUBSIDENCE OF AIR ALOFT AND SUPPRESSING DEEP
CONVECTION OVER THIS REGION. LOOK FOR THE COLD FRONT TO EXTEND
FROM HISPANIOLA TO BELIZE WITH RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS.
ALSO...EXPECT SHOWERS TO LINGER SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO AND
HISPANIOLA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
WATER VAPOR SHOWS A SHORTWAVE MOVING OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC...SUPPORTING A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR 38N64W. A COLD
FRONT EXTENDS SOUTHWEST FROM THE LOW CENTER AND ENTERS THE
DISCUSSION AREA FROM 30N65W TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...CONTINUING
THROUGH EASTERN CUBA. THIS FRONT IS EXPANDING EASTWARD AT 20
KTS. OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS WITH RAIN AND SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 120 NM OF THE FRONT. NORTHERLY WINDS 20 TO 30 KTS ARE
NOTED WEST OF THE FRONT...BRINGING ALONG A LOT OF COLD AIR
ADVECTION. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE AHEAD OF THE FRONT NORTH OF 27N
BETWEEN 58W AND 70W. FURTHER EAST...A 1018 MB HIGH IS CENTERED
OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 27N50W MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST.
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC NEAR
44N20W. A LONG COLD FRONT EXTENDS SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FROM THE LOW
CENTER...ENTERING THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N22W...AND
CONTINUING THROUGH THE SOUTH CENTRAL ATLANTIC ALONG 27N26W
23N30W...CONTINUING AS A STATIONARY FRONT ALONG 20N36W 17N45W
14N54W TO THE EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM EAST OF THE FRONT NORTH OF 23N. LESS
ACTIVITY IS OCCURRING ALONG THE REMAINDER OF THE FRONT. OVER THE
NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS...THE WEST ATLANTIC FRONT WILL MOVE EAST TO
THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC BRINGING CONVECTION TO THIS REGION.
ALSO...THE EAST ATLANTIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE FURTHER EAST
REACHING THE CANARY ISLANDS WITH SHOWERS AND CONVECTION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE.

$$

GARCIA




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