[Tropical] Public Tropical Cyclone Advisory

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WTNT32 KNHC 311259
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
HURRICANE EARL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  24B
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072010
900 AM AST TUE AUG 31 2010

...EARL CONTINUES TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN
STRENGTH...


SUMMARY OF 900 AM AST...1300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.0N 67.6W
ABOUT 200 MI...325 KM NNW OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
ABOUT 230 MI...370 KM E OF GRAND TURK ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...135 MPH...215 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...935 MB...27.61 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS

INTERESTS FROM THE CAROLINAS NORTHWARD TO NEW ENGLAND SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF EARL.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE SAN JUAN NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO
YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS
ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 900 AM AST...1300 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EARL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 21.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 67.6 WEST. EARL IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/HR.  A GRADUAL TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TODAY...WITH THE NORTHWESTWARD
MOTION EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CENTER OF EARL WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY FROM PUERTO
RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS THIS MORNING...AND MOVE OVER THE OPEN
ATLANTIC EAST OF THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 135 MPH...215 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS.  EARL IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE.  SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH
ARE LIKELY OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200
MILES...325 KM.

THE LATEST ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR
FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 935 MB...27.61 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WINDS...GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE OVER THE BRITISH AND
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO TODAY. TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO SPREAD INTO THE TURKS AND
CAICOS ISLANDS BY THIS AFTERNOON.

STORM SURGE...STORM SURGE FLOODING AND WAVES WILL CONTINUE TO
DIMINISH IN PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS TODAY.  ABOVE NORMAL
TIDES...ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS AND THE SOUTHEASTERN
BAHAMAS.

RAINFALL...RAINS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH BUT EARL CAN
STILL PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE U. S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO TODAY.
ISOLATED MAXIMUM STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN
ASSOCIATION WITH EARL.  THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING
FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA


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