[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT41 KNHC 310249
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM DANIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  39
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062010
1100 PM AST MON AUG 30 2010

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH DANIELLE
HAS DECREASED SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.  IN
ADDITION...AMSU MEASUREMENTS SHOW THAT THE WARM-CORE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE CYCLONE HAS WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY DURING THE LAST 12
HOURS.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS MAINTAINED AT 60 KT BUT IS
FAIRLY UNCERTAIN DUE TO THE LACK OF AVAILABLE OBSERVATIONAL DATA IN
THE VICINITY OF DANIELLE IN RECENT HOURS.  DUE TO THE ABSENCE OF
CONVECTION...WEAKENING OF THE WARM-CORE AND A NON-TROPICAL
SATELLITE APPEARANCE...DANIELLE IS BEING DECLARED A POST-TROPICAL
STORM ON THIS ADVISORY. FULL EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IS EXPECTED
TO BE A BIT MORE GRADUAL THAN INDICATED PREVIOUSLY...WITH
BAROCLINIC ZONE TO THE NORTH OVERTAKING DANIELLE BY LATE TOMORROW.

THE CENTER IS BECOMING MORE DIFFICULT TO DISTINGUISH...MAKING THE
INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 070/13 SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN.  GLOBAL
MODELS SHOW DANIELLE ROTATING CYCLONICALLY AND ACCELERATING AROUND
A LARGE 500 MB CLOSED CYCLONE MOVING EASTWARD SOUTH OF GREENLAND
DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS.  THEREAFTER...DANIELLE IS EXPECTED
TO BE ABSORBED WITHIN THE LARGE CYCLONIC GYRE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FEATURE.  THE OFFICIAL NHC FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS ONE AND LIES CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.

FUTURE INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS
FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS
HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      31/0300Z 41.3N  47.1W    60 KT...POST-TROPICAL
 12HR VT     31/1200Z 42.3N  41.8W    55 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 24HR VT     01/0000Z 44.3N  34.0W    55 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 36HR VT     01/1200Z 47.0N  26.6W    50 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 48HR VT     02/0000Z 50.7N  22.8W    45 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72HR VT     03/0000Z...ABSORBED

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN



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