[Tropical] Public Tropical Cyclone Advisory

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WTNT32 KNHC 302253
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
HURRICANE EARL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  22A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072010
700 PM AST MON AUG 30 2010

...EARL CONTINUES MOVING AWAY FROM THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 700 PM AST...2300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.4N 65.1W
ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM NE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...135 MPH...215 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...939 MB...27.73 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUERTO RICO...INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF CULEBRA AND VIEQUES
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
* TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE SAN JUAN NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 700 PM AST...2300 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EARL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 19.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 65.1 WEST.  EARL IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR.  THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD
THE NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY.  ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF
EARL WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE VIRGIN ISLANDS TONIGHT AND PASS EAST
OF THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 135 MPH...215 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  EARL IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE.  SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200
MILES...325 KM.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER
OBSERVATIONS IS 939 MB...27.73 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE OVER THE
BRITISH AND U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS TONIGHT.  TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO THROUGH TONIGHT.  STRONGER
WINDS...ESPECIALLY IN GUSTS...ARE LIKELY OVER ELEVATED TERRAIN IN
PUERTO RICO.  TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO
SPREAD INTO THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

STORM SURGE...STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 3 TO
5 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL PRIMARILY NEAR THE COAST IN AREAS OF
ONSHORE WIND OVER THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND 1 TO 3 FEET
ELSEWHERE IN THE WARNING AREA.  THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES.

RAINFALL...EARL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
OF 4 TO 8 INCHES OVER THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF
12 INCHES...ESPECIALLY OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THESE RAINS COULD
CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...900 PM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/KIMBERLAIN



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