[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 301200
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT MON AUG 30 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DANIELLE AT 30/0900 UTC IS NEAR
40.4N 52.0W...MOVING NORTHEASTWARD 15 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 984 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS
ARE 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC
AND THE LATEST PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC FOR
MORE DETAILS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 40N TO 42N
BETWEEN 52W AND 55W.

THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EARL AT 30/1200 UTC IS NEAR 18.4N
62.9W...OR ABOUT 25 NM/40 KM TO THE NNE OF ST. MARTIN...MOVING
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD 12 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE
IS 965 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 95 KT WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC AND THE LATEST PUBLIC
ADVISORY UNDER MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. NUMEROUS
STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 15N TO 20N
BETWEEN 60W AND 65W...AFFECTING THE ISLANDS AND WATERS OF THE
NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED
CLOUDS AND OTHER POSSIBLE SHOWERS COVER THE REST OF THE AREA
FROM 10N TO 24N BETWEEN 58W AND 70W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 42W/43W MOVING WESTWARD
20 KT. A 1007 MB LOW PRESSURE IS ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 14N.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE FROM 13N TO 18N BETWEEN 43W AND
48W. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A TROPICAL CYCLONE MAY FORM DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. PLEASE READ THE TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATWOAT/ABNT20 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM A 1010 MB LOW
PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 16N22W...TO 10N20W...AND
SOUTHWARD ALONG 20W. IT IS NOT EASY TO DIFFERENTIATE WHICH
NEARBY PRECIPITATION IS JUST RELATED TO THE ITCZ AND WHICH
JUST IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE.

...THE ITCZ...

9N22W 10N31W 13N38W...11N44W 11N50W 14N57W. SCATTERED MODERATE
TO STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 4N TO 11N BETWEEN
20W AND 40W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE FROM 6N TO 12N
BETWEEN 10W AND 18W NEAR AFRICA...AND FROM 9N TO 11N BETWEEN 44W
AND 53W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS INTO THE AREA VIA LOUISIANA INTO THE
NORTHERN GULF WATERS. RAINSHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE SPRINKLED ACROSS THE GULF WATERS. BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC
FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM HONDURAS TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO
THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF MEXICO AND NEARBY COASTAL WATERS.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN
THIS AREA.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM HONDURAS TO
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF MEXICO
AND NEARBY COASTAL WATERS. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THIS AREA. AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER REMAINS OVER THE WATERS BETWEEN CUBA AND THE
CAYMAN ISLAND...ADDING TO THE BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW IN THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA IN GENERAL. AN UPPER LEVEL
INVERTED TROUGH IS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA ALONG
77W/78W TO THE SOUTH OF 14N. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN COLOMBIA AND THE WATERS FROM 8N
TO 15N BETWEEN 74W AND 81W. HURRICANE EARL IS THE BIG NEWS STORY
IN THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. CONDITIONS THAT ARE
ASSOCIATED WITH EARL ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE MORE AND MORE
DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS WITH AN INCREASE IN WIND AND SEAS...
AND HAZARDOUS STORM SURGE AND ABUNDANT RAINFALL.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE WATERS THAT ARE JUST TO
THE EAST OF BERMUDA TO 25N72W..ABOUT 250 NM TO THE EAST OF THE
NORTHERN BAHAMAS. A SURFACE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 33N50W TO
28N60W TO 24N70W. RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 24N IN THE STRAITS OF
FLORIDA TO 27N ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA COAST BETWEEN 72W
AND 82W IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. HURRICANE EARL IS AFFECTING
THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND ADJACENT AREAS OF THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN. CONDITIONS THAT ARE ASSOCIATED WITH EARL ARE
EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE MORE AND MORE DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS
WITH AN INCREASE IN WIND AND SEAS...AND HAZARDOUS STORM SURGE
AND ABUNDANT RAINFALL. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW TO THE NORTH OF
25N BETWEEN 25W AND 50W MOVES AROUND A 1022 MB HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER THAT IS NEAR 29N41W. BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW WITH
AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH COVERS THE AREA TO THE NORTH OF
26N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 40W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT





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