[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement

[EMWIN Server]

WTCA82 TJSJ 300710
HLSSJU

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
HURRICANE EARL LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
310 AM AST MON AUG 30 2010

...CENTER OF EARL PASSING NORTH OF BARBUDA...RAINBANDS APPROACHING
THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...

.AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES IMPORTANT INFORMATION AND
RECOMMENDED ACTIONS FOR PEOPLE AND MARINE INTERESTS IN SELECT
LOCATIONS AND COASTAL WATER LEGS OF PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS COASTAL WATERS.

.WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH CONTINUES FOR THE
FOLLOWING LOCATIONS...SAN JUAN AND VICINITY...NORTHEAST...
SOUTHEAST...EASTERN INTERIOR...NORTH CENTRAL...CENTRAL INTERIOR...
PONCE AND VICINITY...NORTHWEST...WESTERN INTERIOR...MAYAGUEZ AND
VICINITY...SOUTHWEST...CULEBRA...VIEQUES...ST. THOMAS/ST.
JOHN/ADJACENT ISLANDS AND ST CROIX.

FOR MARINE INTERESTS...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE
WATCH CONTINUES FOR PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS COASTAL WATERS.

FOR MARINE INTERESTS...A HURRICANE WATCH CONTINUES FOR PORTIONS
OF PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS COASTAL WATERS.

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AND
THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.
PLEASE LISTEN CLOSELY FOR ANY FLOOD WARNINGS THAT MIGHT BE IN
EFFECT FOR YOUR AREA.

.STORM INFORMATION...
AT 2 AM AST...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EARL WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 18.1N...LONGITUDE 61.8W. THIS WAS ABOUT 280 MILES EAST
OF SAN JUAN PR...OR ABOUT 210 MILES EAST OF SAINT THOMAS U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS. HURRICANE EARL IS PRESENTLY MOVING TOWARDS THE
WEST NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS
WERE NEAR 100 MPH.

.SITUATION OVERVIEW...
HURRICANE EARL CONTINUES ON A TRACK THAT WILL TAKE HIM ACROSS THE
NORTHERNMOST LEEWARD ISLANDS EARLY MONDAY. THIS WILL LIKELY BRING
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS TO THE NORTHERN U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND
FAR EASTERN PUERTO RICO BY LATE MONDAY. ANY DEVIATION TO THE LEFT
OF THE TRACK COULD BRING HURRICANE FORCE WINDS TO THE NORTHERN U.S
VIRGIN ISLANDS. HEAVY RAINS THAT COULD TRIGGER FLASH FLOODING ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AREA. ISOLATED TORNADOES OR
WATERSPOUTS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS...
EASTERN PASSAGES AND THE WATERS SURROUNDING THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS THIS EVENING.

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR THOSE UNDER A WARNING...NOW IS THE TIME TO RUSH TO COMPLETION
PREPARATIONS FOR THE PROTECTION OF LIFE AND PROPERTY. EVACUATE IF
DIRECTED TO DO SO BY LOCAL OFFICIALS...OR IF YOUR HOME IS
VULNERABLE TO HIGH WINDS OR FLOODING. FOR INTERESTS AT
PORTS...DOCKS...AND MARINAS...URGENTLY COMPLETE PRESCRIBED
PREPARATIONS ACCORDING TO YOUR EMERGENCY OPERATIONS PLAN FOR
TROPICAL CYCLONES. IF YOU LIVE ON A BOAT...MAKE FINAL PREPARATIONS
FOR SECURING YOUR CRAFT BEFORE LEAVING IT. BE SURE TO ACCOUNT FOR
THE POSSIBLE CLOSURE OF BRIDGES AND CAUSEWAYS. REGARDING ANY
COASTAL WATERS UNDER A WARNING...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT
AND WELL SECURED. FOR THOSE UNDER A WATCH...CONTINUE WITH YOUR
PREPARATIONS AND LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS. REGARDING ANY
COASTAL WATERS UNDER A WATCH...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD RETURN TO PORT
OR SEEK SAFE HARBOR. DETERMINE THE BEST STRATEGY FOR SECURING YOUR
CRAFT. CLOSELY MONITOR NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER LOCAL NEWS
OUTLETS FOR OFFICIAL STORM INFORMATION. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. FOR ADDITIONAL PRECAUTIONARY AND
PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION... PLEASE REFER TO THE DETAILED
RECOMMENDATIONS RELATIVE TO YOUR LOCATION AS FURTHER DESCRIBED BY
YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE AND LOCAL EMERGENCY
MANAGEMENT.

&&

.NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN SAN JUAN AROUND 600 AM AST...OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS
WARRANT.

PRZ002-012-013-VIZ001-002-310715-
/O.CON.TJSJ.TR.W.1007.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/O.CON.TJSJ.HU.A.1007.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
NORTHEAST-CULEBRA-VIEQUES-ST. THOMAS/ST. JOHN/ADJACENT ISLANDS-
ST CROIX-
310 AM AST MON AUG 30 2010

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT...
...HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT...

...NEW INFORMATION...
STORM POSITION.

...PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM/HURRICANE CONDITIONS...
THE CHANCE FOR HURRICANE CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME IS  UP TO
16 PERCENT. ALSO...THE CHANCE FOR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS AT
THIS TIME IS UP TO 76 PERCENT. THIS REPRESENTS A GENERAL
STEADY TREND SINCE THE LAST FORECAST.

...WINDS...
SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 30 TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED
TO ARRIVE IN THE NORTHERN U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS BY MID MORNING
MONDAY AND INTO VIEQUES...CULEBRA AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO MONDAY
AFTERNOON. RESIDENTS SHOULD MOVE LOOSE ITEMS INDOORS...SUCH AS
GARBAGE CANS AND OUTDOOR FURNITURE... AS THEY WILL BE BLOWN
AROUND. NEWLY PLANTED OR YOUNG TREES AND SHRUBS MAY BE UPROOTED IF
NOT SECURED PROPERLY. ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES WILL BE POSSIBLE.

...INLAND FLOODING...
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. SEE LATEST
FORECAST FOR LATEST INFORMATION. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE FLOOD
WARNINGS FOR YOUR LOCATION...AND BE READY TO ACT IF FLOODING
RAINS OCCUR. OUTER RAIN BANDS WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS...VIEQUES...CULEBRA AND THE EASTERN THIRD OF PUERTO RICO
DURING OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING. RAIN WILL BECOME HEAVIER DURING
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE PASSES ACROSS
THE NORTHERNMOST LEEWARD ISLANDS. WIDESPREAD TOTAL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE EXPECTED WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OF 8
TO 12 INCHES POSSIBLE. THIS WILL LIKELY CAUSE FLOODING OF DRY
GUTS...SMALL STREAMS AND RIVERS AS WELL AS URBAN AREAS.

...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...
TOTAL WATER RISES OF 2 TO 4 FEET ARE EXPECTED PRIMARILY NEAR THE
COAST IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WIND. THESE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE
BREAKING WAVES THAT WILL CREATE DANGEROUS CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT
THE SURF ZONE AND NUMEROUS RIP CURRENTS. WAVE ACTION SURGING UPON
THE COASTLINE AND HIGHER THAN NORMAL WATER LEVELS MAY POSE A
THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY AND PRODUCE MINOR BEACH EROSION.

HERE ARE THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDES AT:

MAGENS BAY...1:45 PM AST MONDAY AT 1.3 FEET.
CHRISTIANSTED...2:18 PM AST MONDAY AT 0.7 FEET.

$$

PRZ001-003>011-310715-
/O.CON.TJSJ.TR.W.1007.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/O.CON.TJSJ.HU.A.1007.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
SAN JUAN AND VICINITY-SOUTHEAST-EASTERN INTERIOR-NORTH CENTRAL-
CENTRAL INTERIOR-PONCE AND VICINITY-NORTHWEST-WESTERN INTERIOR-
MAYAGUEZ AND VICINITY-SOUTHWEST-
310 AM AST MON AUG 30 2010

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT...
...HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT...

...NEW INFORMATION...
STORM POSITION.

...PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM/HURRICANE CONDITIONS...
THE CHANCE FOR HURRICANE CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME IS VERY SMALL.
ALSO...THE CHANCE FOR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME IS
UP TO 48 PERCENT. THIS REPRESENTS A GENERAL STEADY TREND SINCE
THE LAST FORECAST.

...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...
TOTAL WATER RISES OF 2 TO 4 FEET ARE EXPECTED PRIMARILY NEAR THE
COAST IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WIND. THESE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE
BREAKING WAVES THAT WILL CREATE DANGEROUS CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT
THE SURF ZONE AND NUMEROUS RIP CURRENTS. WAVE ACTION SURGING UPON
THE COASTLINE AND HIGHER THAN NORMAL WATER LEVELS MAY POSE A
THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY AND PRODUCE MINOR BEACH EROSION.

...INLAND FLOODING...
OUTER RAIN BANDS FROM HURRICANE EARL WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE
AREA EARLY TUESDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF UP TO TWO INCHES ARE
EXPECTED.

...WINDS...
THE LATEST AREA FORECAST IS FOR MAXIMUM WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH
WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH. HOWEVER...AS HURRICANE EARL APPROACHES...
STRONGER WINDS ARE STILL POSSIBLE. CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE
FORECAST FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES AND BE READY TO ACT. ANY
DEVIATION TO THE LEFT OF THE TRACK COULD BRING TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS.

$$

AMZ712-715-722-725-732-735-310715-
/O.CON.TJSJ.TR.W.0001.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/O.CON.TJSJ.HU.A.1007.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM-
COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN USVI AND CULEBRA OUT 10 NM-
ANEGADA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N-
COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHERN USVI VIEQUES AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO
OUT 10 NM-CARIBBEAN WATERS OF PUERTO RICO FROM 10 NM TO 17N-
COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM-
310 AM AST MON AUG 30 2010

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT...
...HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT...

...NEW INFORMATION...
STORM POSITION.

...PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM/HURRICANE CONDITIONS...
THE CHANCE FOR HURRICANE CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME IS LESS THAN OR
EQUAL TO 35 PERCENT. ALSO...THE CHANCE FOR TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME IS UP TO 94 PERCENT. THIS REPRESENTS A
GENERAL STEADY TREND SINCE THE LAST FORECAST.

...WINDS AND SEAS...
SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS GREATER THAT 34 KNOTS WILL
BEGIN TO AFFECT THE COASTAL WATERS AROUND NOON. WATERS NORTH OF
ST. THOMAS AND ST. JOHN WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE STRONGER WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 50 KNOTS. SEAS BETWEEN 8 TO 12 FEET ARE EXPECTED.

$$

AMZ710-310715-
/O.CON.TJSJ.TR.W.0001.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/O.CON.TJSJ.HU.A.1007.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
ATLC WATERS OF PUERTO RICO AND USVI FROM 10NM TO 19.5N-
310 AM AST MON AUG 30 2010

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT...
...HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT...

...NEW INFORMATION...
STORM POSITION.

...PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM/HURRICANE CONDITIONS...
THE CHANCE FOR HURRICANE CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME IS LESS THAN OR
EQUAL TO 64 PERCENT. ALSO...THE CHANCE FOR TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME IS UP TO 98 PERCENT. THIS REPRESENTS A
GENERAL STEADY TREND SINCE THE LAST FORECAST.

...WINDS AND SEAS...
THE LATEST AREA FORECAST IS FOR MAXIMUM WINDS OF 35 TO 55 KNOTS
WATERS NORTH OF THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS WILL EXPERIENCE SUSTAINED
WINDS BETWEEN 50 AND 63 KNOTS. HOWEVER...AS HURRICANE EARL
APPROACHES... STRONGER WINDS ARE STILL POSSIBLE AND THE TROPICAL
STORM WARNING MAY NEED TO BE UPGRADED TO A HURRICANE WARNING LATER
TODAY. CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE FORECAST FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES AND BE READY TO ACT. SEAS WILL VARY GREATLY ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC OFFSHORE WATERS WITH MAXIMUM SEAS RANGING FROM 15 FEET
ALONG LONGITUDE 67 WEST TO UP TO 25 FEET ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS CLOSER TO THE TRACK OF EARL.

$$

AMZ741-742-745-310715-
/O.CON.TJSJ.HU.A.1007.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
MONA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N-
COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHWESTERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM-
COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHWESTERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM-
310 AM AST MON AUG 30 2010

...HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT...

...NEW INFORMATION...
STORM POSITION.

...PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM/HURRICANE CONDITIONS...
THE CHANCE FOR HURRICANE CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME IS VERY SMALL.
ALSO...THE CHANCE FOR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME IS
LESS THAN OR EQUAL TO 29 PERCENT. THIS REPRESENTS A GENERAL
STEADY TREND SINCE THE LAST FORECAST.

...WINDS AND SEAS...
SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM OR HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED.
HOWEVER...ANY SIGNIFICATION DEVIATION TO THE LEFT OF THE TRACK OF
THE STORM COULD BRING TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS. WATCHES MAY BE
DISCONTINUED LATER TONIGHT OR TOMORROW. SEAS WILL VARY GREATLY
WITH 4 TO 8 FEET ACROSS THE MONA PASSAGE AND UP TO 3 FEET OVER
PROTECTED WATERS.

$$

ER



This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net