[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 300548
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT MON AUG 30 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DANIELLE AT 30/0300 UTC IS NEAR
39.3N 53.0W...OR ABOUT 445 NM TO THE SOUTH OF CAPE RACE
NEWFOUNDLAND...MOVING NORTHEASTWARD 14 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 980 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS
ARE 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC
FORECAST/ ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC
AND THE LATEST PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC FOR
MORE DETAILS. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 26N TO
30N BETWEEN 56W AND 63W.

THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EARL AT 30/0600 UTC IS NEAR 18.1N
61.8W...OR ABOUT 30 NM/55 KM TO THE NORTH OF BARBUDA...MOVING
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD 13 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE
IS 969 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 85 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 105 KT. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ ADVISORY
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC AND THE LATEST
PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.
NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 15N TO 19N
BETWEEN 59W AND 64W...AFFECTING THE ISLANDS AND WATERS OF THE
NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED
CLOUDS AND OTHER POSSIBLE SHOWERS COVER THE REST OF THE AREA
FROM 10N TO 22N BETWEEN 54W AND 69W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 41W/42W MOVING WESTWARD
20 KT. A 1007 MB LOW PRESSURE IS ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 14N.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE FROM 7N TO 18N BETWEEN 40W AND
48W. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A TROPICAL CYCLONE MAY FORM DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. PLEASE READ THE TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATWOAT/ABNT20 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM A 1010 MB LOW
PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 17N21W...TO 14N20W 10N19W...
AND SOUTHWARD ALONG 19W. IT IS NOT EASY TO DIFFERENTIATE WHICH
NEARBY PRECIPITATION IS JUST RELATED TO THE ITCZ AND WHICH JUST
IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE.

...THE ITCZ...

9N22W 10N31W 13N38W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 4N TO 11N BETWEEN 21W AND 36W. ISOLATED
MODERATE SHOWERS ARE FROM 6N TO 8N BETWEEN 10W AND 16W NEAR
AFRICA.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS INTO THE AREA VIA LOUISIANA INTO THE
NORTHERN GULF WATERS. RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
INDIVIDUAL CELLS COVER THE GULF WATERS FROM 27N TO 30N BETWEEN
82W/83W ALONG THE FLORIDA GULF COAST TO 92W. BROAD UPPER LEVEL
CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM HONDURAS TO THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA TO THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF MEXICO AND NEARBY
COASTAL WATERS. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THIS AREA.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM HONDURAS TO
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF MEXICO
AND NEARBY COASTAL WATERS. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THIS AREA. AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER REMAINS OVER THE WATERS BETWEEN CUBA AND THE
CAYMAN ISLAND...ADDING TO THE BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW IN THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA IN GENERAL. AN UPPER LEVEL
INVERTED TROUGH IS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA ALONG
77W TO THE SOUTH OF 14N. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN COLOMBIA TO THE EAST OF THE TROUGH TO THE
NORTH OF 6N. HURRICANE EARL IS THE BIG NEWS STORY IN THE
NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. CONDITIONS THAT ARE ASSOCIATED
WITH EARL ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE MORE AND MORE DURING THE
NEXT TWO DAYS WITH AN INCREASE IN WIND AND SEAS...AND HAZARDOUS
STORM SURGE AND ABUNDANT RAINFALL.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE WATERS THAT ARE JUST TO
THE EAST OF BERMUDA TO 26N72W..ABOUT 270 NM TO THE EAST OF THE
NORTHERN BAHAMAS. A SURFACE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N52W TO
28N59W TO 26N70W. RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 24N IN THE STRAITS OF
FLORIDA TO 26N ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA COAST BETWEEN 72W
AND 80W. HURRICANE EARL IS AFFECTING THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA AND ADJACENT AREAS OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. CONDITIONS THAT
ARE ASSOCIATED WITH EARL ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE MORE AND
MORE DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS WITH AN INCREASE IN WIND AND
SEAS...AND HAZARDOUS STORM SURGE AND ABUNDANT RAINFALL.
SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW TO THE NORTH OF 25N BETWEEN 25W AND
50W MOVES AROUND A 1022 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR
29N39W. BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW WITH AN EASTERN ATLANTIC
OCEAN TROUGH COVERS THE AREA TO THE NORTH OF 26N BETWEEN AFRICA
AND 40W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT





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