[Tropical] Public Tropical Cyclone Advisory

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WTNT32 KNHC 291746
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
HURRICANE EARL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  17A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072010
200 PM AST SUN AUG 29 2010

...OUTER RAINBANDS OF EARL APPROACHING THE ISLANDS OF ANTIGUA AND
BARBUDA...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.4N 58.9W
ABOUT 190 MI...310 KM E OF ANTIGUA
ABOUT 280 MI...450 KM E OF ST. MARTIN
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...978 MB...28.88 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...MONTSERRAT...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...AND ANGUILLA
* SAINT MARTIN AND SAINT BARTHELEMY
* ST. MAARTEN...SABA...AND ST. EUSTATIUS

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* PUERTO RICO INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF CULEBRA AND VIEQUES

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* PUERTO RICO INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF CULEBRA AND VIEQUES

HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA WITHIN THE
NEXT 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EARL WAS LOCATED
BY A HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT NEAR LATITUDE 17.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE
58.9 WEST. EARL IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...
24 KM/HR. A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.  ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF EARL WILL PASS NEAR OR OVER THE
NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS TONIGHT AND MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  EARL IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE.  STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS AND EARL IS FORECAST TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BY
TUESDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES...45 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160
MILES...260 KM.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AIR FORCE HURRICANE
HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 978 MB...28.88 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE HURRICANE
WARNING AREA LATER TODAY...WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY
EARLY MONDAY MORNING.  TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
SPREAD OVER THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO ON MONDAY...WITH
HURRICANE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT.

STORM SURGE...STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 1
TO 3 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL PRIMARILY NEAR THE COAST IN AREAS OF
ONSHORE WIND WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.  THE SURGE WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES.

RAINFALL...EARL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
OF 3 TO 5 INCHES OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...WITH
POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES.  RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
OF 4 TO 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER PUERTO RICO...WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES POSSIBLE OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THESE
RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/BERG



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