[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 291236 AAA
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SUN AUG 29 2010

UPDATED TROPICAL STORM EARL BECOMING A HURRICANE

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

HURRICANE DANIELLE IS CENTERED NEAR 33.2N 57.3W AT 29/0900 UTC
WHICH IS ABOUT 380 NM E OF BERMUDA OR ABOUT 835 NM SSW OF CAPE
RACE NEWFOUNDLAND MOVING NE AT 18 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 972 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 80 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 100 KT. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.
DANIELLE IS BEGINNING TO WEAKEN WITH THE EYE FEATURE NO LONGER
DISCERNIBLE. DEEP CONVECTION IS NOW TO THE NE OF THE LOW LEVEL
CENTER DUE TO THE SW SHEAR. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 32N-36N BETWEEN 54W-57W.

EARL IS UPGRADED TO A HURRICANE AS OF 29/1230 UTC. HURRICANE
EARL IS CENTERED NEAR 17.1N 57.7W AT 29/1230 UTC WHICH IS ABOUT
320 NM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS MOVING W AT 16 KT.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 985 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WIND SPEED HAS INCREASED TO 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. SEE
LATEST INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER
MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. EARL APPEARS TO BE
EXPERIENCING SOME NORTHERLY SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE OUTFLOW
FROM HURRICANE DANIELLE WITH THE OUTFLOW OF EARL RESTRICTED ON
THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. THIS SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE
TODAY AS EARL MOVES AWAY FROM DANIELLE. THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
EARL WILL BECOME A HURRICANE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND COULD
REACH MAJOR HURRICANE STRENGTH BY MID WEEK. SCATTERED/NUMEROUS
STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 15N-17N BETWEEN 55W-58W WITH SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION COVERING THE REMAINDER OF
THE AREA FROM 13N-19N BETWEEN 54W-61W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FAST APPROACHING THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 34W/35W S OF 11N WITH A 1008 MB SURFACE
LOW CENTERED ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 14N MOVING W 15-20 KT.
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY INDICATES AN AREA OF DEEP
LAYERED MOISTURE SURROUNDING THE WAVE/LOW. SCATTERED MODERATE/
STRONG CONVECTION IS W OF THE WAVE AXIS COVERING THE AREA FROM
12N-17N BETWEEN 35W-39W. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN
CONDUCIVE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM AT ANY TIME DURING
THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N11W 7N21W 8N31W THEN RESUMES NEAR
10N38W 8N48W INTO THE S CARIBBEAN NEAR 11N62W. LARGE CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 4N-10N
BETWEEN 11W-30W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER HIGH IS CENTERED INLAND OVER NE MEXICO NEAR 25N99W
COVERING THE W GULF AND EXTENDING AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS E
ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND INTO THE W ATLC. N OF THIS
RIDGE AXIS IS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM
THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI VALLEY S JUST E OF NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA
INTO THE FAR N GULF TO NEAR 28N89W SUPPORTING A 1011 MB SURFACE
LOW NOW CENTERED JUST INLAND ALONG THE LOUISIANA COAST NEAR
LAKE CHARLES. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE LOW SW TO NEAR
27N97W. THIS SURFACE TROUGH COUPLED WITH DIFFLUENCE ALOFT
COMPLIMENTS OF THE UPPER RIDGE ARE GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH AND NW OF A LINE
FROM PENSACOLA FLORIDA TO MEXICO NEAR LAGUNA MORALES. ISOLATED
SHOWERS REMAIN ACROSS THE NE GULF N OF 26N E OF 90W. DUE TO THE
EASTERLY UPPER FLOW ACROSS THE S GULF AND A SURFACE LOW IN THE E
PACIFIC REGION JUST S OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE BAY
OF CAMPECHE S OF 20N BETWEEN 93W-96W.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LOW IS CENTERED ALONG THE COAST OF HONDURAS NEAR 16N88W
AND COUPLED WITH THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO
COVERING THE NW CARIBBEAN ARE KEEPING BRISK UPPER LEVEL WINDS
OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN N OF 17N W OF 83W. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE
OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC COVERS THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 70W INDUCING
AN UPPER TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM W PANAMA ACROSS W HAITI. DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE COVERS MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN AS INDICATED ON THE
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY AND COUPLED WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL FLOW ARE PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 120/150 NM OF LINE FROM THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE ACROSS JAMAICA TO THE TIP OF NICARAGUA/HONDURAS.
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS TO OVER CUBA BETWEEN 79W-83W. MOST OF THE E CARIBBEAN IS
DOMINATED BY RELATIVELY DRY AND STABLE AIR WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
THE LEEWARD ISLANDS WHERE SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE MOVING TO OVER
THE ISLANDS COMPLIMENTS OF TROPICAL STORM EARL. CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE ACROSS THE LEEWARD AND VIRGIN ISLANDS AS
EARL CONTINUES ON THE W THEN W-NW TRACK. HEAVY RAINS AND
GUSTY WINDS WILL BE REACHING THE ISLANDS LATER TODAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS OVER THE NW ATLC DIPPING S TO 27N W OF
60W WITH THE UPPER RIDGE THAT COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO
EXTENDING ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO THE SW ATLC TO
26N70W. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDING S
OVER THE W TROPICAL ATLC AND E CARIBBEAN COVERING THE AREA N OF
10N BETWEEN 50W-70W INDUCING AN UPPER TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM
NEAR 27N66W SW TO OVER E CUBA AND HISPANIOLA. A WEAK SURFACE
RIDGE DIPS S OVER THE W ATLC TO 26N W OF 70W TO OVER THE FAR NW
GULF OF MEXICO. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO POOL ON THE SW
SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 25N-31N W OF 76W TO INLAND
OVER THE SE CONUS. FARTHER EAST...HURRICANE DANIELLE CONTINUES
TO MOVE NE BUT WILL CONTINUE PROVIDING LONG PERIOD SWELLS AND
DANGEROUS SURF TO BERMUDA AND THE EASTERN U.S. COASTLINE THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. TO THE E OF DANIELLE IS A SURFACE
RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1018 MB HIGH NEAR 29N42W DOMINATING THE
REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL ATLC INTO THE E ATLC.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW






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