[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

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WTNT41 KNHC 290838
TCDAT1
HURRICANE DANIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  32
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062010
500 AM AST SUN AUG 29 2010

DANIELLE HAS WEAKENED THIS MORNING. AN EYE IS NO LONGER APPARENT IN
GEOSTATIONARY SATELLITE IMAGERY AND DEEP CONVECTION HAS ERODED
SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION...
DUE TO ABOUT 25-30 KT OF SOUTHWESTERLY WIND SHEAR. DVORAK CI NUMBERS
ARE 77 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB...AND ON THIS BASIS THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 80 KT. A CONTINUED GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND
IS EXPECTED AS THE CYCLONE MOVES OVER COOLER WATERS AND INTO AN
EVEN STRONGER WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW DANIELLE
TRANSITIONING TO AN STRONG EXTRATROPICAL STORM WITHIN 2 DAYS...AND
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS SUIT.

DANIELLE CONTINUES TO MOVE QUICKLY NORTHEASTWARD...AHEAD OF A MID-
TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY ALONG 63 W...AND THE INITIAL
MOTION ESTIMATE IS 035/18. THE HURRICANE MAY BRIEFLY SLOW DOWN
DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS AS SOME MID-LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS TO THE
NORTH OF DANIELLE. THEREAFTER...A LARGER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO
AMPLIFY OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...AND THAT SHOULD CAUSE DANIELLE
TO ACCELERATE TO THE NORTHEAST ONCE AGAIN. THE OFFICIAL TRACK
FORECAST IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE.

THE 34-KT AND 50-KT WIND RADII HAVE BEEN EXPANDED OVER THE WESTERN
SEMICIRCLE BASED ON AN 0142 UTC ASCAT PASS. THE 12-FT SEA RADII HAVE
ALSO BEEN EXPANDED BASED ON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      29/0900Z 33.2N  57.3W    80 KT
 12HR VT     29/1800Z 35.9N  55.5W    75 KT
 24HR VT     30/0600Z 38.3N  53.6W    70 KT
 36HR VT     30/1800Z 39.8N  50.7W    65 KT
 48HR VT     31/0600Z 41.1N  46.0W    60 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72HR VT     01/0600Z 46.0N  34.0W    60 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96HR VT     02/0600Z 54.5N  31.0W    55 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120HR VT     03/0600Z...ABSORBED

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

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